[LINK] Asya Perelstvaig on the alienation of Ukraine from Russia and the Russian language

[rfmcdonald]

At Languages of the World late in April, Asya Perelstvaig looked at what Ukrainians, nationally and in various regions, thought about Russia and the idea of state protection for the Russian language. A broad anti-Russian shift across the country seems to be the case.

he first study, conducted in February 2015, considered people’s opinions on the political future of Ukraine. Across the nation, two thirds of the respondents said that they would like to see Ukraine remain one nation, governed as it is now; 22% want to give more autonomy to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Only 7% want the far-eastern Ukraine to secede and either become independent (4%) or to be annexed by Russia (3%). Crucially, even in the far-eastern Ukraine (“Donbass Rebel Head”), opinions are split almost evenly: 51% want Ukraine to remain united (with or without additional autonomy for the Donbass area), while 42% want Donbass to secede. Note that only about a quarter of respondents in Donbass want it to be annexed by Russia.

Russia can interveneAnother question in the same survey asked if Russia has “a right to intervene to protect Russian citizens and Russian speakers”. The response across the nation is overwhelmingly “no”, with only 5% giving Russia such a right; even in the most Russian-oriented Donbass area (i.e. Donetsk and Luhansk regions), the opinion is split 50/50.

Another longitudinal survey examined the attitudes of Ukrainians and Russians towards each other—and showed that positive attitudes on both sides have taken a plunge since the beginning of the conflict. In November 2013, before the current conflict heated up, 82% of Ukrainians held positive attitudes towards Russians, and 69% of Russians felt the same way about Ukrainians. In December 2014, only a third of Ukrainian respondents had positive attitudes towards Russians, and merely a quarter of Russians felt the same way about Ukrainians. It is also interesting to note that Russians have consistently held less positive attitudes towards Ukrainians than vice-versa, since April 2008 (when the question was first asked). Another curious fact is the dip in positive attitudes of Russians towards Ukrainians in late 2008, in the wake of the Russian-Georgian war—my hunch is that this worsening view of Ukrainians among Russians is due to the Russian propaganda at the time, but I would like to hear from the readers if they have other explanations. Note also that this plunge in positive attitudes towards Ukrainians among Russians in late 2008-early 2009 was not matched by the similar worsening of attitudes on the part of Ukrainians, unlike during the current crisis.

The Kiev International Institute of Sociology has also been tracking public opinion on the future of Ukraine and its ties to either Europe or Russia. Since the beginning of the current crisis, which was jump-started by the demonstrations in favor of closer ties with the European Union, even more Ukrainian citizens want to see increased integration of Ukraine with the EU (up from 41% in the fall of 2013 to 47% in February 2015). Another sharp increase is seen in the number of respondents who want to see no further integration of the country with either the EU or Russia (from 9% to 27%). Conversely, the number of people who want to see closer integration of Ukraine with Russia and its Customs Union (including Belarus and Kazakhstan) has plunged from 35% to 12%. Most of those pro-Russian votes come from Southern and Eastern Ukraine, where 18% and 30% (respectively) want to see more integration with the Russia-led Customs Union. Note, however, that even in those regions “integration with the Customs Union” is not the plurality view; in both zones, the most popular answer is “neither the EU nor the Customs Union”. It is also worth noting that in this survey (and in other surveys reported on below) the proportion of people who responded with “difficult to say” or “no answer” is rather small (less than 10%): it appears that Ukrainian citizens have very clear and strong opinions on the issues of language and their country’s future.