[LINK] "Baku Keeps a Wary Eye on Tehran"

[rfmcdonald]

Transition Online's Aleksandra Jarosiewicz describes how and why Azerbaijan is wary of the reentry of post-sanctions Iran onto the global stage. Its sometime rival, inherently stronger, its reentry might be a threat.

As a result of the Russian-Persian wars in the 19th century, Azerbaijan was divided, with the bulk of Azeris staying behind the country's new southern border, in what is today Iran. Potential nationalist or even separatist tendencies of this minority were assessed as a security threat by the Iranian government, and Azerbaijanis have occasionally intensified these concerns by such initiatives as the proposal to change the name of their country to "Northern Azerbaijan." Secondly, Azerbaijan, with a Shi’ite population estimated at 50 percent to 70 percent – although most of the population is indifferent to religion – is suspicious of Iranian attempts to export its version of Islam and support for a small but vocal orthodox Shi’ite community.

A third thorn in Baku’s side is Iran’s continuing support for Armenia. Tehran supported the Armenian side during the active phase of the Nagorno-Karabakh war in the early 1990s as a way of counterbalancing Azerbaijan’s potential influence among ethnic Azeris in northern Iran, who number more than the total population of Azerbaijan itself. Tehran was also concerned about an alliance between Baku and its rival Turkey based on Pan-Turkic ideas.

Iranian economic cooperation with Armenia has continued for the past two decades. Fortunately for Baku, Russian resistance prevented Armenia from diversifying its gas imports with Iranian help. What Baku perceived as Iran’s siding with Armenians prompted it to forge security cooperation with Israel, Iran’s prime adversary.

Finally, in terms of energy, Azerbaijan, although energy-rich for a country of its size, is no match for Iran and its world-class reserves of gas and oil.