[URBAN NOTE] "Holding Montreal Island seats top priority for Liberals"

[rfmcdonald]

The Toronto Star's Chantal Hébert notes the exceptional potential weakness of the Liberals. If they fear losing seats in their Québec heartland of the island of Montréal, what prospects does the party have?

Today, according to the latest CROP poll, the party is running a dismal third across francophone Quebec, some 38 points behind the NDP.

If the federal election had been held this week the Liberals would again have been locked out of most of the province.

[. . .]

The NDP says it has also set its sights on Trudeau’s own Papineau riding. Former CBC/Radio-Canada journalist Anne Lagacé Dawson will carry the party flag in that battle.

By talking up their prospects in Papineau, the New Democrats may be getting ahead of themselves. Trudeau has established a personal connection to the riding and he did beat poor Liberal odds twice.

Still, in the last election the Bloc Québécois won 26 per cent of the votes in Papineau. If that support collapses in favour of the New Democrats — as it has been province-wide — the Liberal leader could be in trouble.

For the many federal Liberals in Quebec who saw Trudeau as a saviour at the time of his leadership victory two years ago, the first three weeks of the election campaign have been sobering ones. The party is nowhere near where it had expected to be in Quebec.