[LINK] "The challenges of post-Chávez Venezuela"

[rfmcdonald]

At Open Democracy before this week's election, Pablo Stefanoni wrote about Venezuela's uncertain prospects.

"The Venezuelan nation now depends on young professionals who migrate; as in the case of the Armenian Diaspora, they are the ones who will be responsible for preserving our culture." The sentence, said by an upper-middle class lady, reflects two symptoms of current Venezuela: the escapist tendencies of some of the critics of Nicolás Maduro’s regime and, at the same time, a situation that appears to be hitting rock bottom, in which – for real or imagined reasons - emigration is being left as the only option for many young, middle or upper-class professionals.

A 2012 video, available on YouTube, refers to Caracas as a "city of goodbyes". "I spend my weekends seeing friends off," says one of the citizens appearing in the film; "I'm in love with Caracas but we cannot live together," says another; "Looks like my life has stopped being interesting", says the song in the soundtrack. At the same time, the faces and the phenotypes (white) as well as the social marks (upper middle class) reveal one of the cracks in Venezuelan society, which has been there since long before Chávez, but which has become politicized since the late 90s. Today, the crisis – due both to the absence of a charismatic leadership and falling oil revenues - encourages this kind of speech. And disappointment includes many Chavistas non-Maduristas.

The legitimacy of Chavismo was based on the powerful combination of the leader’s charisma and high oil revenues, and its outreach to the whole of Latin America. The death of the Supreme Commander, officially on March 5, 2013, together with falling oil prices, eroded the very foundations of the Bolivarian Revolution. But the high expectations nurtured by the opposition regarding the parliamentary elections of December 6, do not imply any certainty that the crisis will automatically play in their favour – at least, not as much as its leaders and supporters wish. To them, the winning card is now the "López factor": i.e., jailed opposition leader Leopoldo López who, after his recent conviction, has become a virtual martyr of democracy and freedom in his Ramo Verde prison.

Aged 44 and an economist by trade, related to Simón Bolivar through his mother’s family, a good speaker and former mayor of Chacao, Leopoldo López was imprisoned one and a half years ago under the accusation of stirring the protests in which he sought to deploy in the streets a strategy known as "La salida” (The way out), designed to force the resignation of Nicolás Maduro (whose term ends in 2019), seasoned by the so-called "guarimbas" (road-blocking and barricading). On September, 10, López was sentenced to 13 years, 9 months, 7 days and 12 hours in prison by interim Judge Susana Barreiros. "If I am convicted, you will be more afraid to read the verdict than I will be to hear it," the opposition leader said to her in the last hearing, while Caracas was eagerly awaiting the court's decision.