[OBSCURA] One scenario imagining the collapse of the Russian Federation

[rfmcdonald]

Earlier this month, Paul Goble at Window on Eurasia linked/a> to "Экономические последствия распада РФ. Только факты, без эмоций", translated by Google as "The economic consequences of the collapse of the Russian Federation. Just the facts, without emotion". This article imagined a scenario where the Russian Federation would come apart at the seams, on ethnic and economic lines, as indicated by the map below.

In most cases, the independence of the subjects of the current Russian Federation will allow for economic growth and an increase in the standard of living of the population because they will not have to send so much of their income to Moscow whose “’elites’” care only about how to remain in power and how much wealth they can take from the population.

There are three reasons, the Ukrainian analysts say, why the regions and republics may separate from the USSR: “a desire to independently control their own natural resources, nationality concerns, and close economic ties with other countries. In many cases, these are mixed, but the analysts consider each group in turn.

The regions and republics which might separate from Russia in order to control their natural resources include Bashkortostan, the Astrakhan Republic, Buryatia, Komi, a unified Don-Kuban, Sakha, the Siberian Republic, Tatarstan, the Urals Republic, Yugra, and the Orenburg Republic, all of which would see their incomes rise with independence.

The regions and republics which might separate from Russia in order to promote the needs of their titular nationality include a united Altay, Adygeya, Kalmykia, Mari-El, Mordvinia, Tyva, Chuvashia, Daghestan, Chechnya, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Osetia-Alania, Karachayevo-Cherkesia, and Ingushetia.

And those who might separate because of close ties with foreign countries are the Far Eastern Republic, the Kaliningrad Republic, Karelia, and the Kurile Islands.

This scenario strikes me as unlikely, requiring a thorough collapse of the Russian Federation. What would it take for areas with Russian majorities of population to want to separate from a Russian state? There are reasons why Québec and Catalonia have stronger separatist movements than, say, Manitoba and Essex. Why would regions with non-Russian majorities necessarily want to reject links with Russia for an uncertain independence? The most likely candidates for secession from Russia are to be found in the North Caucasus, home to mostly non-Russian populations with some measure of cultural distance from Russia, but separatism is dim even in autonomist Tatarstan.