[URBAN NOTE] "What Would Fare By Distance Mean For Toronto?"

[rfmcdonald]

At his blog, Steve Munro considers possible fee structures in the case of regional transit integration in Toronto leading to the end of the Metropass (flat rate within Toronto). His calculations are complex, and still upsetting. I do hope the Metropass fee structure can survive in some form.

For the very simplest of analyses, let us assume that the TTC (and by implication the rest of the GTHA) moves to a common distance-based structure. TTC accounts for by far the lion’s share of ridership and revenue, and so its stats are as good a starting point as any. Toronto also contains the largest number of riders who will benefit from or be hurt by changes in the existing fares, and so it is reasonable to use this biggest-slice-of-the-pie for a worked example.

For the year ended December 31, 2015, the total fare revenue collected by the TTC is expected to be $1,107-million for ridership of 534-million, or an average fare per rider of $2.073. [Source: January 2016 CEO’s Report pp 38 & 41]

From the Metrolinx Fare Integration background study, which in turn cites data from the 2011 Transportation Tomorrow Survey, we know that the average trip length is roughly 7.5km including trips that are captive to one mode or transfer between surface and subway, and trips that are local to downtown, to the rest of Toronto, or cross between these areas.

(Methodology: This number can be estimated from the average trip length charts by service type, or by estimating the trip type and length distributions from the chart below. I will spare readers the mechanics of doing this. What comes out of the process is that the average length of a “local” trip is about 4.2km, while a “rapid transit” trip is 8.9km. Averaging all trips gives a value of 7.3km. What does not make sense, however, is that the 7.5km average includes linked trips, journeys that use both modes, while Metrolinx segregates them. This is not the only problem with the Metrolinx data as we will see later.)

This number is in the same ballpark as one I calculated many years ago when the TTC was attempting to allocate revenue to its routes based on distance travelled, and average trip lengths could be worked out from the overall data. (Total passenger miles divided by total passengers gave average trip length.)

If the average trip is 7.5km, then the revenue per kilometre is $0.276. This number would move up or down depending on the value of average trip length we use.

On a purely distance basis, and with no reallocation for special fare classes, passes or other considerations, a 10km trip would cost $2.76, a 20km trip would cost $5.52. and a 30km trip $8.28.