[NEWS] More on the search for Planet Nine

[rfmcdonald]

The search for Planet Nine, a distant Neptune-mass world orbiting beyond the known worlds of the Kuiper belt, continues. The Dragon's Tales has been linking to a variety of interesting papers on the search effort, narrowing in on specific area sof the sky. Will shared, for instance, Brown and Batygin's paper "Observational constraints on the orbit and location of Planet Nine in the outer solar system".

We use an extensive suite of numerical simulations to constrain the mass and orbit of Planet Nine, the recently proposed perturber in a distant eccentric orbit in the outer solar system. We compare our simulations to the observed population of aligned eccentric high semimajor axis Kuiper belt objects and determine which simulation parameters are statistically compatible with the observations. We find that only a narrow range of orbital elements can reproduce the observations. In particular, the combination of semimajor axis, eccentricity, and mass of Planet Nine strongly dictates the semimajor axis range of the orbital confinement of the distant eccentric Kuiper belt objects. Allowed orbits, which confine Kuiper belt objects with semimajor axis beyond 230 AU, have perihelia roughly between 200 and 350 AU, semimajor axes between 300 and 900 AU, and masses of approximately 10 Earth masses. Orbitally confined objects also generally have orbital planes similar to that of the planet, suggesting that the planet is inclined approximately 30 degrees to the ecliptic. We compare the allowed orbital positions and estimated brightness of Planet Nine to previous and ongoing surveys which would be sensitive to the planet's detection and use these surveys to rule out approximately two-thirds of the planet's orbit. Planet Nine is likely near aphelion with an approximate brightness of 22 less than V less than 25. At opposition, its motion, mainly due to parallax, can easily be detected within 24 hours.

de la Fuente Marcos et al had another, non-contradictory, paper, suggesting Planet Nine would be at aphelion, "Finding Planet Nine: a Monte Carlo approach".

Planet Nine is a hypothetical planet located well beyond Pluto that has been proposed in an attempt to explain the observed clustering in physical space of the perihelia of six extreme trans-Neptunian objects or ETNOs. The predicted approximate values of its orbital elements include a semimajor axis of 700 au, an eccentricity of 0.6, an inclination of 30 degrees, and an argument of perihelion of 150 degrees. Searching for this putative planet is already under way. Here, we use a Monte Carlo approach to create a synthetic population of Planet Nine orbits and study its visibility statistically in terms of various parameters and focusing on the aphelion configuration. Our analysis shows that, if Planet Nine exists and is at aphelion, it might be found projected against one out of four specific areas in the sky. Each area is linked to a particular value of the longitude of the ascending node and two of them are compatible with an apsidal antialignment scenario. In addition and after studying the current statistics of ETNOs, a cautionary note on the robustness of the perihelia clustering is presented.

"Making Planet Nine: A Scattered Giant in the Outer Solar System" is a paper that speculates as to how Planet Nine got out so far in the solar system.

Correlations in the orbits of several minor planets in the outer solar system suggest the presence of a remote, massive Planet Nine. With at least ten times the mass of the Earth and a perihelion well beyond 100 AU, Planet Nine poses a challenge to planet formation theory. Here we expand on a scenario in which the planet formed closer to the Sun and was gravitationally scattered by Jupiter or Saturn onto a very eccentric orbit in an extended gaseous disk. Dynamical friction with the gas then allowed the planet to settle in the outer solar system. We explore this possibility with a set of numerical simulations. Depending on how the gas disk evolves, scattered super-Earths or small gas giants settle on a range of orbits, with perihelion distances as large as 300 AU. Massive disks that clear from the inside out on million-year time scales yield orbits that allow a super-Earth or gas giant to shepherd the minor planets as observed. A massive planet can achieve a similar orbit in a persistent, low-mass disk over the lifetime of the solar system.

Shannon Hall's Scientific American article "Mysterious Gravitational Tug on Orbiter May Help Find Planet Nine" notes how data from the Cassini probe has been used to narrow down the possibilities still further.

Batygin and Brown made the case for Planet Nine’s existence based on its gravitational effect on several Kuiper Belt objects—icy bodies that circle the sun beyond Neptune’s orbit. Theoretically, though, its gravity should also tug slightly on the planets, moons and even any orbiting spacecraft. With this in mind, Agnès Fienga at the Côte d’Azur Observatory in France and her colleagues checked whether a theoretical model (one that they have been perfecting for over a decade) with the new addition of Planet Nine could better explain slight perturbations seen in Cassini’s orbit. Without it, the eight planets in the solar system, 200 asteroids and five of the most massive Kuiper Belt objects cannot perfectly account for it. The missing puzzle piece might just be a ninth planet.

So Fienga and her colleagues compared the updated model, which placed Planet Nine at various points in its hypothetical orbit, with the data. They found a sweet spot—with Planet Nine 600 astronomical units (about 90 billion kilometers) away toward the constellation Cetus—that can explain Cassini’s orbit quite well. Although Fienga is not yet convinced that she has found the culprit for the probe’s odd movements, most outside experts are blown away. “It’s a brilliant analysis,” says Greg Laughlin, an astronomer at Lick Observatory, who was not involved in the study. “It’s completely amazing that they were able to do that so quickly.” Gerdes agrees: “That’s a beautiful paper.”

The good news does not end there. If Planet Nine is located toward the constellation Cetus, then it could be picked up by the Dark Energy Survey, a Southern Hemisphere observation project designed to probe the acceleration of the universe. “It turns out fortuitously that the favored region from Cassini is smack dab in the middle of our survey footprint,” says Gerdes, who is working on the cosmology survey. “We could not have designed our survey any better.” Although the survey was not planned to search for solar system objects, Gerdes has discovered some (including one of the icy objects that led Batygin and Brown to conclude Planet Nine exists in the first place).

Laughlin thinks this survey has the best immediate chance of success. He is also excited by the fact that Planet Nine could be so close. Although 600 AUs—roughly 15 times the average distance to Pluto—does sound far, Planet Nine could theoretically hide as far away as 1,200 AUs. “That makes it twice as easy to get to, twice as soon,” Laughlin says. “And not just twice as bright but 16 times as bright.”

I do quite hope that Planet Nine is out there. What, I wonder, will it be named?