[URBAN NOTE] "Lagging ridership a problem for the TTC — and a mystery"

[rfmcdonald]

The Toronto Star's Royson James looks at the costly mystery behind the TTC's dropping ridership.

In the 1990s, when the province’s economy nose-dived and the number of passengers on the TTC dropped precipitously, then dropped some more, it was the incremental uptick in TTC ridership numbers that signaled a rebound.

The TTC as economic bellwether is one of the sacred doctrines of those who analyze economic trends in the region. Before the usual indicators start broadcasting the bad news of an economic downturn, the doctrine goes, TTC analysts can see it coming in the declining ridership growth the system’s monthly tracking spills out.

The early warning does nothing to avert the impending gloom; it exists to help the system survive the shock by allowing the TTC to take counter-measures as early as possible.

So, already, in a late-March report to the transit commission, TTC boss Andy Byford is tipping his hand, indicating that staff is retrenching. By his own projection, this year the TTC will collect “in the neighbourhood of $30 million” less than budgeted.