[URBAN NOTE] "Putting Scarborough subway claims to the test"

[rfmcdonald]

At the Toronto Star, Jennifer Pagliaro and Ben Spurr take issue with claims that the Scarborough subway extension makes sense, going point by point.

Is a subway needed for the number of riders expected?

The claim: On CBC’s Metro Morning, Tory said: “The real point is that Scarborough is the only part of our city that does not have its city centre connected by higher order transit — a subway.”

For years, especially during the Rob Ford era, advocates argued a high-capacity subway is the best way to make that connection, and anything else would be less than Scarborough “deserves.” That argument was bolstered when staff suddenly offered an updated ridership projection in July 2013: 14,000 riders at peak hours — enough to just barely justify a subway’s higher capacity.

The facts: Ridership and capacity aren’t the only important factors in deciding choice of transit, but they do help determine the best value for money.

The more recent projection of 7,300 peak riders is lower than what was expected for the seven-stop LRT (8,000); lower than the TTC’s original projection for a three-stop subway (9,500); and little more than half of the 2013 projection of 14,000.

The one-stop extension could open in 2023. It’s projected to hit 7,300 riders by 2031 at best. And just 4,500 new daily riders would be drawn to the subway if it replaces the current Scarborough RT.

The ridership projection shrank with shifting plans for the overall transit network. Tory’s heavy rail SmartTrack plan, tied to GO Transit expansion plans, was designed to run parallel to the subway line, with stations just kilometres apart. Staff then removed two stations from the subway plan, avoiding duplication with SmartTrack and reducing costs, but leaving just one new station for subway riders.

The TTC says the Bloor-Danforth subway is currently running at capacity, at just under 26,000. With plans to upgrade signalling — which would allow for frequent trains — capacity could grow to almost 33,000 by 2031, when the subway would already reach into Scarborough.

But with 7,300 peak riders, trains would be 80 per cent empty between the Scarborough Town Centre and Kennedy station. Even an LRT — with a maximum capacity of 15,000 — would be half-empty on that part of the route at rush hour.

They go into the claims at great length.