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rfmcdonaldLast June, I argued that when the Koreas, the South--economically developed, politically more-or-less democratic, strongly connected to global cultural and demographic trends--will face an immense task of construction in the North, given the massive gap between northern and southern living standards. Speed is particularly of the essence in the Korean case, since this gap would serve, in a fully reunified Korea, as a potent spur to massive North Korean migration to the South. The gap between the former East Germany and West Germany was significantly smaller, on the order of two-to-one against the East, but two million East Germans (out of a 1989 population of 18 million) migrated. How much greater could North-to-South migration be in Korea?
Over at Asia Times, Jeffrey Robertson argues in his article "Young North Korea could save old South" that South Korea's rapidly aging population will make it essential to draw upon younger immigrants. He points to the North--poorer, younger, supposedly more fertile--as a natural source well into the 21st century. He acknowledges that this projection is vulnerable, like every other medium-to-long-term demographic projection, to changes in birth and death rates. In the case of North Korea, the sheer opacity of the regime makes the projections even more unreliable: The true toll of the devastating famine of the 1990s is uncertain, while the possibility of HIV/AIDS crossing the Chinese border (despite the regime's current claims) is very real.
I've two things to add to Robertson's analysis.
My thoughts? In the event of a complete reunification of the Koreas, with unrestrained freedom of movement across sovereign Korean territory for Korean citizens, the North will quite rapidly depopulate itself. It will not be a good time to be a blue-collar worker native to the South. And immigrants from the wider world will still come, simply because however bad things in South Korea are they're better than in their homelands.
Over at Asia Times, Jeffrey Robertson argues in his article "Young North Korea could save old South" that South Korea's rapidly aging population will make it essential to draw upon younger immigrants. He points to the North--poorer, younger, supposedly more fertile--as a natural source well into the 21st century. He acknowledges that this projection is vulnerable, like every other medium-to-long-term demographic projection, to changes in birth and death rates. In the case of North Korea, the sheer opacity of the regime makes the projections even more unreliable: The true toll of the devastating famine of the 1990s is uncertain, while the possibility of HIV/AIDS crossing the Chinese border (despite the regime's current claims) is very real.
I've two things to add to Robertson's analysis.
- South Korea, as a large First World economy, has the heft necessary to attract immigrants from around the world. It already does, with a population of illegal immigrants drawn from around the world, including from Korean populations in China. Precedent worldwide demonstrates that however South Korea's immigration policies are tailored, immigrants will enter with little regard for official goals.
- It's very rare for migratory trends to be perfectly beneficial to both sides, with no more emigrants leaving a region than are necessary to reduce unemployment and no more immigrants entering a region than are needed to fill local employment niches. Arguably, the volume of emigration from the South Caucasus threatens the region's chances for prosperity. I won't mention Atlantic Canada, just on principle.
My thoughts? In the event of a complete reunification of the Koreas, with unrestrained freedom of movement across sovereign Korean territory for Korean citizens, the North will quite rapidly depopulate itself. It will not be a good time to be a blue-collar worker native to the South. And immigrants from the wider world will still come, simply because however bad things in South Korea are they're better than in their homelands.
