One reason that I tend to discount scenarios describing the collapse of the United States is that I tend to associate them with science fiction, specifically with the Cyberpunk 2020 RPG's history. After coming out badly from lost wars and pandemic disease, in 2008 the United States attacks Soviet military installations in Earth orbit; united Europe gets involved on behalf of its eastern ally, starting the First Orbital War. The United States surrenders in the end, mainly because it didn't have the foresight to colonize the Moon and build mass drivers, and so was taken utterly by surprise when the ESA razed Colorado Springs and selected other military targets on the pattern of The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress. Subsequent American history seemed, from my passing acquaintance, to involve the privatization of the United States government, complete social collapse, and the proliferation of heavily-armed military forces on Earth and in space, leaving wealthy western Europeans and Japanese to talk nervously about the "degeneration of the American situation" as they look to their own defenses. It just seems unreal, like so much luridly-written futuristic science fiction that just seems cool.
This, I'm beginning to think, may be a bit of a mistake on my part. Not yet a big one, but something still.
This, I'm beginning to think, may be a bit of a mistake on my part. Not yet a big one, but something still.