[BRIEF NOTE] Eurasian Population Futures
Aug. 30th, 2005 12:00 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
rfmcdonaldOver at A Fistful of Euros, Edward Hugh notes that by 2050, the regional distribution of populations within the former Soviet Union will change sharply, with major drops in the European former republics, situations approaching stasis in Kazakhstan and the Caucasus, and population booms in most of Central Asia. Not without reason, Hugh predicts that the richer European former republics will begin to attract immigrants, with Russia in particular drawing on migrants from Central Asia and China. Already, Russia is trying to manage the expected future influx.
It's worth noting that demographic predictions can change radically. In the late 1920s, for instance, France's population was predicted to contract 30% by 1980. Instead, it grew by more than 30%. The wild card here, it seems to me, is the question of the former Soviet Union's relations with the greater European Union. Might a prosperous European Union facing a labour crunch start to attract migrants from across the former Soviet Union, even from well-positioned Russia? And if so, what will this do to Eurasian societies?
It's worth noting that demographic predictions can change radically. In the late 1920s, for instance, France's population was predicted to contract 30% by 1980. Instead, it grew by more than 30%. The wild card here, it seems to me, is the question of the former Soviet Union's relations with the greater European Union. Might a prosperous European Union facing a labour crunch start to attract migrants from across the former Soviet Union, even from well-positioned Russia? And if so, what will this do to Eurasian societies?
