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rfmcdonaldThe ever-interesting Will Baird has noted that Russia and China, the two major powers and founders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, have just vetoed in the UN sanctions against Iran for its nuclear energy program. (Iran, it should be noted, is an associate member of the SCO; other associates include Pakistan and India, while the other four full member-states are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.) Is this the first sign, he wonders, of a tripolar world, with American, European, and Chinese-dominated blocs?
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization certainly points to a surprisingly close and friendly Sino-Russian federation, despite Cold War-era conflicts and lingering distrust. At the same time, China is far and away the dominant member-state of the SCO, with Russia coming a distant second in terms of population and economic capacity. Is the SCO ever going to be as unified under Chian as, say, the Warsaw Pact was under the Soviet Union? I doubt it. The question of whether Russia will become China's sockpuppet has been debated on alt.history.future, and the general consensus seemed to be that Russia is simply too large and too nationalistic to be easily placed under Chinese hegemony, and that any attempt to force Russian submission could shatter such a Chinese zone in north Asia. Look at how nationalism of Poland, nearly a European Great Power by itself, wrecked the Warsaw Pact and Soviet hegemony in central and eastern Europe.
The SCO just isn't likely to be the nucleus of a Cold War-style bloc, or even of an EU-style confederation. It's too porous an organization, and its member-states are too dependent on interactions with the outside world. Might the SCO be instead a new-style bloc, say, the equivalent of the German-Austro-Hungarian alliance of the belle époque? That can't be excluded, certainly not at this early interval. The only thing that's seriously open to question is the target of this bloc--terrorism, or perhaps something or someone else?
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization certainly points to a surprisingly close and friendly Sino-Russian federation, despite Cold War-era conflicts and lingering distrust. At the same time, China is far and away the dominant member-state of the SCO, with Russia coming a distant second in terms of population and economic capacity. Is the SCO ever going to be as unified under Chian as, say, the Warsaw Pact was under the Soviet Union? I doubt it. The question of whether Russia will become China's sockpuppet has been debated on alt.history.future, and the general consensus seemed to be that Russia is simply too large and too nationalistic to be easily placed under Chinese hegemony, and that any attempt to force Russian submission could shatter such a Chinese zone in north Asia. Look at how nationalism of Poland, nearly a European Great Power by itself, wrecked the Warsaw Pact and Soviet hegemony in central and eastern Europe.
The SCO just isn't likely to be the nucleus of a Cold War-style bloc, or even of an EU-style confederation. It's too porous an organization, and its member-states are too dependent on interactions with the outside world. Might the SCO be instead a new-style bloc, say, the equivalent of the German-Austro-Hungarian alliance of the belle époque? That can't be excluded, certainly not at this early interval. The only thing that's seriously open to question is the target of this bloc--terrorism, or perhaps something or someone else?
