I'm pleased to note that
Ottawa Citizen journalist Dan Gardner--author of the excellent
Future Babble--now has a blog at the website of
Psychology Today, also called
Future Babble. In his
first post he addresses the question of why futurologists who makes demonstrably incorrect predictions--indeed, almost always do that--are lionized.
CNBC is right that Elaine Garzarelli forecast a stock market crash not long before the great plunge of 1987. It made her a superstar. But what about Garzarelli's other calls? How accurate were they? Was her successful prediction a typical result or was it more like the occasional bull's eye that even a chimpanzee could be expected to nail if it threw hundreds of darts at a board? The article doesn't say. The only reference to Garzarelli's record is that one spectacular hit.
CNBC is right that Elaine Garzarelli forecast a stock market crash not long before the great plunge of 1987. It made her a superstar. But what about Garzarelli's other calls? How accurate were they? Was her successful prediction a typical result or was it more like the occasional bull's eye that even a chimpanzee could be expected to nail if it threw hundreds of darts at a board? The article doesn't say. The only reference to Garzarelli's record is that one spectacular hit.
Here's what the story should have noted but did not: After Garzarelli shot to fame for calling the crash of '87, she struggled. Even though she continued to use the same analytical system that supposedly called the crash, the mutual fund she managed did poorly. In 1994, the fund was closed and Garzarelli's firm showed its former superstar the door.
Maybe Garzarelli's current prediction will prove to be bang on. I don't know. But I do know that someone who knew only what CNBC said about Elaine Garzarelli would have a lot more faith in that prediction than someone who knew more.
Why such popularity still? Here's one sentence fragment of note: ""The root of all superstition is that men observe when a thing hits but not when it misses," Sir Francis Bacon observed[.]"
Go, read.