A Bit More Detail

Canadian pollster (with Angus Reid) Mario Canseco has contributed an interesting analysis, based on opinion polling, of differing attitudes in Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States regarding the legal status of same-sex marriage. It turns out that men and older people in all four countries are more skeptical of same-sex marriage than women and younger cohorts, and that Americans stand out for their relatively hostile stance to homosexuality.

In Australia and Britain, about one-third of respondents believe that civil unions or partnerships are enough for same-sex couples (and that full-fledged marriage laws are therefore unnecessary). Only about one-fifth of respondents in Canada and the United States believe the same. Americans, however, are far more likely to think that same-sex couples should get no legal recognition at all: 27 per cent of American respondents feel this way, compared to 14 per cent of Canadian and Australian respondents, and 15 per cent of British respondents. Fewer than one in five Canadian and Australian respondents over the age of 55 believe that same-sex couples should get no legal recognition. This proportion grows to 21 per cent in Britain, and jumps to 33 per cent in the United States. It is important to note that older Aussies and Brits like the civil-partnership idea more than marriage or no legal recognition.

Several American states have held votes in an attempt to define marriage in their respective constitutions. This idea has not been discussed prominently in Australia and Britain, but the Angus Reid poll suggests that people in these three countries would vote very differently if they had the chance. If a referendum on the definition of marriage took place in Australia – where voting is mandatory and where the last nationwide plebiscite focused on the monarchy – the definition of marriage as a legal union between two people, rather than exclusively between a man and a woman, would emerge victorious. Britons are evenly split on this question, while Americans would vote to keep the current definition of marriage as “between a man and a woman.”

Americans’ opposition to the legalization of same-sex marriage is not caused, as some people have argued, by the apparent absence of gay and lesbian friends or relatives in the United States. In fact, 56 per cent of respondents in the United States know someone who is gay or lesbian. While this percentage is lower than in Australia and Canada, it still represents a majority, and is higher than in Britain. The main variance for Americans is their more general stance on homosexuality. While majorities of Canadians and Australians – and practically half of Britons – believe that people are born gay, only 40 per cent of Americans agree with this notion. Last year, one in four Americans said they believe it is possible to convert gays and lesbians into heterosexuals through prayer.

Go, read.

I've just come from an annoying Livejournal debate with someone who thinks, in relation to Northern Ireland, that reality should be forced to match up with his theory of the way things should be. The remarkable consistency of revanchist nationalisms is impressive, no?

Anyway, this has prompted me to put a poll up on the subject of Northern Ireland's future.

[Poll #690955]

Try to remember that "will" is not the same thing as "should."