[BRIEF NOTE] On Palestine
Jun. 16th, 2007 06:58 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
rfmcdonaldThe recent Hamas takeover of Gaza Strip, along with Fatah's corresponding purges on the West Bank, seems to have put paid to the idea of any united Palestinian state encompassing both regions. David Kimche, writing in the Jerusalem Post ("The challenge for the new Olmert gov't") worries that this fragmentation might work to Israel's disadvantage.
More probable, in the light of the incapacity of either emergent statelet, Hamas' very bad public relations with extraregional powers, and Israel's significantly greater strength, is the scenario painted by Aluf Benn and Shmuel Rosner in Ha'aretz ("An overpowering reality").
Both scenarios share in common a recognition that a common Palestinian identity just isn't enough to paper over the ideological differences between the two Palestinian territories, these differences in turn produced by long-standing historical, cultural, and geographical differences. Gaza and the West Bank were united only after 1967 under Israeli suzerainty. In the two decades previous, these territories were governed by Egypt and Jordan, respectively, and before that, Gaza and the West Bank were just component territories of Mandatory Palestine. Palestine and Palestinians exist, and have existed for a while, but they can only be united when no one wants to separate them. The Palestinian centre can't hold because there never was a Palestinian centre, a durable and legitimate common state of some sort. Given the near-complete disinterest of almost everyone involved in actually maintaining common ground, it seems safe to bet that there won't be a functioning common Palestinian state for a good while yet. The Palestinians will suffer most from this, of course; more's the pity that they, like their neighbours, also choose leaders prone to these sorts of self-inflicted catastrophes.
[T]he danger of a collapse of the two-state solution is very great, and with Hamastan in Gaza, it has now become much greater. The longer the occupation continues, the less likely that the two-state solution will be feasible. The longer it continues, the higher the number of advocates in Europe and elsewhere for the delegitimization of Israel. And, as nearly all of us know by now, one state between the Jordan and the Mediterranean entails the Jewish people becoming a minority in that state, a sad end to the Zionist dream.
More probable, in the light of the incapacity of either emergent statelet, Hamas' very bad public relations with extraregional powers, and Israel's significantly greater strength, is the scenario painted by Aluf Benn and Shmuel Rosner in Ha'aretz ("An overpowering reality").
The Hamas victory bolsters Israel's unstated policy of dividing the Palestinian Authority into two states - Gaza and the West Bank. Israel cannot say this out loud in front of the Americans, who are committed to a single Palestinian state, so Olmert will have to speak in code. He will suggest that Bush strengthen international support for the peace process. This would involve deploying an international force in Gaza, implementing an engineering solution to block arms smuggling in Rafah, pressuring the Egyptians to do more against the smugglers, and encouraging the Saudis to stop being embarrassed by the collapse of the Palestinian unity agreement cooked up in Mecca.
Both scenarios share in common a recognition that a common Palestinian identity just isn't enough to paper over the ideological differences between the two Palestinian territories, these differences in turn produced by long-standing historical, cultural, and geographical differences. Gaza and the West Bank were united only after 1967 under Israeli suzerainty. In the two decades previous, these territories were governed by Egypt and Jordan, respectively, and before that, Gaza and the West Bank were just component territories of Mandatory Palestine. Palestine and Palestinians exist, and have existed for a while, but they can only be united when no one wants to separate them. The Palestinian centre can't hold because there never was a Palestinian centre, a durable and legitimate common state of some sort. Given the near-complete disinterest of almost everyone involved in actually maintaining common ground, it seems safe to bet that there won't be a functioning common Palestinian state for a good while yet. The Palestinians will suffer most from this, of course; more's the pity that they, like their neighbours, also choose leaders prone to these sorts of self-inflicted catastrophes.
