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Earlier speculation about Ukrainian recognition of Kosovo has been put to rest by a recent announcement stating Ukraine's opposition to Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence. The key to this can be found in the first article linked to above.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko said Monday that Kosovo independence "can by no means be a precedent. I believe most of the EU countries hold the same view".

Speaking about Ukraine's military presence in Kosovo, Ohryzko said that "it is in Ukraine's interest to maintain its presence in the region. We have already proved our ability to work and bring positive results there"

Ukraine's former defense minister Oleksandr Kuzmuk, now in opposition, said that Kosovo's declaration of independence "threatens the security of the whole world community - no more, no less... In our case it is Crimea".

Crimea, Ukraine's Black Sea peninsular, is a multiethnic region where tensions persist between Muslim Tatars - a Turkic ethnic group - and ethnic Ukrainians and Russians.

"Ukraine has much more favorable conditions for such a precedent than the once prosperous Yugoslavia," Kuzmuk added.


While Ukraine at this point does seem to be richer than Serbia, Kuzmuk has a point. Back in 2005, I made a couple of posts (1,
2) arguing that talk of the secession of Russophone provinces of Ukraine was overblown since Russophones also identified themselves as Ukrainians, ethnically and politically. Crimea is different--not only was it only attached to Ukraine in 1954, but 73% of its population are ethnic Russians and the Russian Black Sea Fleet is based in Crimea. A Crimean unilateral declaration of independence, perhaps aiming towards Crimea's closer association with Russia, must rank as a major nightmare for Ukrainian politicians regardless of party affiliation. So, from Kyiv, ni.
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