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rfmcdonaldThe reaction to Mubaraks's announcement of non-resignation has been predictably very hostile.
Over at Facebook, David suggested that early suggestions that Mubarak might resign were leaked by the Egyptian military, so as to justify an eventual coup against Mubarak claiming the favour of the people. He, and others, brought up the Romanian Revolution of 1989, televised and ending in the end of the Socialist Republic and the execution of the Ceausescus. Luke was kind enough to point me to the video, in two parts, of Nicolae Ceausescu's final, uncomprehending, speech to the Romanian workers assembled in downtown Bucharest.
I like Wikipedia's summary of his attempted speech and its effects.
And as I watched the videos on YouTube, a ticker appeared pointing me to al-Jazeera's coverage.
The comparison between Egypt now and Romania at the end of 1989 is useful, inasmuch as it points to the possibility of a violent end to Mubarak's regime and his life (and not, as rumoured, flight to Montenegro). It also brings other issues to light, like the extent to which Mubarak's regime might survive Mubarak. Romania's transition from Communism trailed central Europe substantially, with delayed economic reform and profound autocracy and occasional flirtation with state-organized violence against political opponents. If the post-Mubarak regime comes to power but doesn't change things significantly enough, or quickly enough, will the Egyptian new order last as long as Romania's?
[Mubarak] addressed the country on television late Thursday evening. Shortly after, Suleiman addressed the country, asking protesters to go home.
"This crowd went from joy and exuberance very rapidly through the course of [Mubarak's] speech to a lot of anger," the CBC's David Common said, reporting from a position overlooking Cairo's Tahrir Square.
Mubarak had been widely expected to resign, handing power over immediately to Suleiman. Instead, it appeared he will remain as president. Throughout the day, the crowds in central Cairo had been celebrating their expected victory and the removal of the president.
"Even about two-thirds of the way through the speech …, they drowned out a broadcast that was being played down there in Tahrir Square," Common reported.
In Washington, the CBC's Susan Bonner said: "This is hardly the transformational moment that President Barack Obama was hoping for."
Over at Facebook, David suggested that early suggestions that Mubarak might resign were leaked by the Egyptian military, so as to justify an eventual coup against Mubarak claiming the favour of the people. He, and others, brought up the Romanian Revolution of 1989, televised and ending in the end of the Socialist Republic and the execution of the Ceausescus. Luke was kind enough to point me to the video, in two parts, of Nicolae Ceausescu's final, uncomprehending, speech to the Romanian workers assembled in downtown Bucharest.
I like Wikipedia's summary of his attempted speech and its effects.
On the morning of 21 December Ceauşescu addressed an assembly of approximately 100,000 people, to condemn the uprising in Timişoara. However, Ceauşescu was out of touch with his people and completely misread the crowd's mood. Starting his speech in the usual "wooden language", spurting out pro-socialist and Communist Party rhetoric, Ceauşescu delivered a litany of the achievements of the "socialist revolution" and Romanian "multi-laterally developed socialist society". The people, however, remained apathetic, and only the front rows supported Ceauşescu with cheers and applause. As the speech went on, some in the crowd actually began to jeer and boo and utter insults at him. Ceauşescu's lack of understanding of the recent events and his incapacity to handle the situation were further demonstrated when he offered, as an act of desperation, to raise workers' salaries by 100 lei per month (about 9 US dollars at the time, yet a 5–10% raise for a modest salary) and student scholarship from 100 to 110 lei while continuing to praise the achievements of the Socialist Revolution, unable to realize that a revolution was brewing right in front of his eyes.
As he was addressing the crowd from the balcony of the Central Committee building, sudden movement came from the outskirts of the massed assembly, as did the sound of (what various sources have reported as) fireworks, bombs, or guns, which together caused the assembly to break into chaos. Initially frightened, the crowds tried to disperse. Bullhorns then began to spread the news that the Securitate was firing on the crowd and that a "revolution" was unfolding. This persuaded people in the assembly to join in. The rally turned into a protest demonstration.
The entire speech was being broadcast live around Romania, and it is estimated that perhaps 76% of the nation was watching. Censors attempted to cut the live video feed, and replace it with communist propaganda songs and video praising the Ceauşescu regime, but parts of the riots had already been broadcast and most of the Romanian people realized that something unusual was in progress.
Ceauşescu and his wife, as well as other officials and CPEx members, panicked, and Ceauşescu went into hiding inside the building.
The reaction of the Ceauşescu couple on the balcony is memorable: They staged futile attempts to regain control over the uprising crowd using phone conversation formulas such as "Alo, Alo" ("Hello, Hello"), Ceauşescu's wife "advised" him how to contain the situation "Vorbeşte-le, vorbeşte-le" ("Talk to them, talk to them"), and they urged the crowd "Staţi liniştiţi la locurile voastre" ("Stay quiet in your places"). In the end Ceauşescu allowed himself to be directed into the Central Committee building by his underlings.
And as I watched the videos on YouTube, a ticker appeared pointing me to al-Jazeera's coverage.
The comparison between Egypt now and Romania at the end of 1989 is useful, inasmuch as it points to the possibility of a violent end to Mubarak's regime and his life (and not, as rumoured, flight to Montenegro). It also brings other issues to light, like the extent to which Mubarak's regime might survive Mubarak. Romania's transition from Communism trailed central Europe substantially, with delayed economic reform and profound autocracy and occasional flirtation with state-organized violence against political opponents. If the post-Mubarak regime comes to power but doesn't change things significantly enough, or quickly enough, will the Egyptian new order last as long as Romania's?
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