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  • Bad Astronomer Phil Plait notes the Elon Musk proposal to terraform Mars by dropping nuclear weapons on the planet's ice caps is a bad idea.

  • James Bow writes about how the introduction of faeries saved his novel The Night Girl.

  • Centauri Dreams looks at the storms of Jupiter.

  • The Crux explains the mystery of a village in Poland that has not seen the birth of a baby boy for nearly a decade.

  • D-Brief looks at the exoplanets of nearby red dwarf Gliese 1061.

  • Cody Delisraty talks of Renaissance painter Fra Angelico.

  • Drew Ex Machina commemorates the 30th anniversary of the Voyager 2 flyby of Neptune.

  • The Dragon's Tales shares links to some papers about the Paleolithic.


  • JSTOR Daily hosts an essay by Viktor Mayer-Schönberger suggesting that Internet rot might be good since it could let people start to forget the past and so move on.

  • Language Hat questions whether the phrase "free to all" has really fallen out of use.

  • Language Log takes a look about immigration to the United States and Emma Lazarus' famous poem.

  • Dan Nexon at Lawyers, Guns and Money takes issue with the suggestion of, among other, Henry Farrell, that we are headed away from globalization towards fortress economies. Redundancy, he suggests, will be more important.

  • Marginal Revolution links to a disturbing paper suggesting users of opioids use them in part for social reasons.

  • The NYR Daily features an exchange on a new law in Singapore seeking to govern fake news.

  • The Power and the Money features a guest post from Leticia Arroyo Abad looking at Argentina before the elections.

  • Drew Rowsome takes a look at a new play by Raymond Helkio examining the life of out boxer Mark Leduc.

  • Starts With A Bang's Ethan Siegel considers if we can test gravitational waves for wave-particle duality.

  • Arnold Zwicky shares photos of the many flowers of Gamble Garden, in Palo Alto.

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  • John Quiggin at Crooked Timber suggests that the planet Earth, judging by the progress of space travel to date, is going to be the only planet our species will ever inhabit.

  • D-Brief notes surprising new evidence that maize was domesticated not in Mesoamerica, but rather in the southwest of the Amazon basin.

  • Dangerous Minds notes the penalties proposed by Thomas Jefferson in Virginia for buggery, sodomy, and bestiality.

  • Earther considers the extent to which Thanos' homeworld of Titan, whether the Saturnian moon or lookalike world, could ever have been habitable, even with extensive terraforming.

  • Hornet Stories notes the interesting light that a study of ideal penis sizes among heterosexual women sheds on studies of sexuality generally.

  • JSTOR Daily takes an extended look at how the sharing economy, promoted by people like Lawrence Lessig and businesses like Airbnb, turned out to be dystopian not utopian, and why this was the case.

  • Victor Mair at Language Log reports on controversy over bread made by a Taiwanese baker, and at the language used.

  • Lawyers, Guns and Money notes the latest proof of the decline of Harper's as a meaningful magazine. (Myself, I lost respect for them when they published an extended AIDS denialist article in 2006.)

  • Allan Metcalfe at Lingua Franca celebrates, using the example of lexicographer Kory Stamper's new book, how the blog helped him connect with the stars of linguistics.

  • Katherine Franke at the NYR Daily notes pressure from Israel directed against academic critics in the United States.

  • Emily Lakdawalla at the Planetary Society Blog notes how the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has picked up InSight hardware on the surface of Mars below.

  • Starts With A Bang's Ethan Siegel notes how NASA is running short of Plutonium-238, the radioactive isotope that it needs to power spacecraft like the Voyagers sent on long-duration missions and/or missions far from the sun.

  • Window on Eurasia notes how, based on an excess of deaths over births, the population of Crimea will decline for the foreseeable future.

  • Arnold Zwicky takes a look at some examples of the anaphora, a particular kind of rhetorical structure.

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  • The mysterious cause of the "blood falls" of Antarctica has been uncovered. VICE's Motherboard reports.

  • The Great Green Wall of Africa may not have prevented desertification in the Sahel, but it is a project that has left some positive legacies. Smithsonian Magazine reports.

  • Universe Today considers if cyanobacteria could be used to help terraform Mars. (Maybe, though there would still be the planet's shortages of basic chemicals to deal with.)

  • The Atlantic reports on the almost surprisingly revelatory nature of an Anders Sandberg paper imagining what would to the Earth if it became a mass of blueberries.

  • WBUR reports on the discovery of a new pigment for my favourite colour blue, comprising (among other elements) the rare indium.

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  • Centauri Dreams notes a paper suggesting that a world without plate tectonics could support Earth-like conditions for up to five billion years.

  • D-Brief notes a paper suggesting that, although geoengineering via sulfate could indeed lower global temperatures, reduced light would also hurt agriculture.

  • Dead Things notes a suggestion that the Americas might have been populated through two prehistoric migration routes, through the continental interior via Beringia and along the "Kelp Route" down the Pacific North American coast.

  • Peter Kaufman, writing at the Everyday Sociology Blog, shares some of the impressive murals and street art of Philadelphia and grounds them in their sociological context.

  • L.M. Sacasas at The Frailest Thing suggests that social media, far from being a way to satisfy the need for human connection and attention in a mass society, creates a less functional solution.

  • Hornet Stories reports that Turkish Radio and Television vows to remain outside of Eurovision so long as this contest includes queer performers like Conchita Wurst (and other queer themes, too, I don't doubt).

  • Lawyers, Guns and Money reports on a study suggesting that the oratory of Hitler actually did not swing many votes in the direction of the Nazis in the elections of Germany in 1932.

  • Patricia Escarcega at Roads and Kingdoms praises the Mexican breakfast buffet restaurants of Tucson.

  • Arnold Zwicky meditates on the Boules roses of the Village gay of Montréal, Swiss Chalet, and poutine.

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  • Bad Astronomer Phil Plait notes how the recently-charted orbit of S2 around Sagittarius A* in the heart of our galaxy proves Einstein's theory of relativity right.

  • D-Brief notes a recent NASA study of Mars concluding that, because of the planet's shortfalls in conceivably extractable carbon dioxide, terraforming Mars is impossible with current technology.

  • Dead Things suggests that one key to the rise of Homo sapiens may be the fact that we are such good generalists, capable of adapting to different environments and challenges with speed even if we are not optimized for them. (Poor Neanderthals.)

  • At the Everyday Sociology Blog, Karen Sternheimer examines how individuals' identities shift as they engage, encountering new problems.

  • Hornet Stories notes that Thailand may well beat Taiwan in creating civil unions for same-sex couples.

  • JSTOR Daily examines the famed, nay iconic, baobab tree of Africa.

  • Erik Loomis at Lawyers, Guns and Money wonders about how, as the centennial of the introduction of women's suffrage approaches, the white racism of many suffragettes will be dealt with.

  • The Map Room Blog reports on Michael Plichta's very impressed hand-crafted globe of the Moon.

  • Russell Darnley at Maximos' Blog reports on the massive forest fires in Indonesia's Jambi Province.

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Many things accumulated after a pause of a couple of months. Here are some of the best links to come about in this time.


  • Anthrodendum considers the issue of the security, or not, of cloud data storage used by anthropologists.

  • Architectuul takes a look at the very complex history of urban planning and architecture in the city of Skopje, linked to issues of disaster and identity.

  • Centauri Dreams features an essay by Ioannis Kokkidinis, examining the nature of the lunar settlement of Artemis in Andy Weir's novel of the same. What is it?

  • Crux notes the possibility that human organs for transplant might one day soon be grown to order.

  • D-Brief notes evidence that extrasolar visitor 'Oumuamua is actually more like a comet than an asteroid.

  • Bruce Dorminey makes the sensible argument that plans for colonizing Mars have to wait until we save Earth. (I myself have always thought the sort of environmental engineering necessary for Mars would be developed from techniques used on Earth.)

  • The Everyday Sociology Blog took an interesting look at the relationship between hobbies and work.

  • Far Outliers looks at how, in the belle époque, different European empires took different attitudes towards the emigration of their subjects depending on their ethnicity. (Russia was happy to be rid of Jews, while Hungary encouraged non-Magyars to leave.)

  • The Finger Post shares some photos taken by the author on a trip to the city of Granada, in Nicaragua.

  • The Frailest Thing's L.M. Sacasas makes an interesting argument as to the extent to which modern technology creates a new sense of self-consciousness in individuals.

  • Inkfish suggests that the bowhead whale has a more impressive repertoire of music--of song, at least--than the fabled humpback.

  • Information is Beautiful has a wonderful illustration of the Drake Equation.

  • JSTOR Daily takes a look at the American women who tried to prevent the Trail of Tears.

  • Language Hat takes a look at the diversity of Slovene dialects, this diversity perhaps reflecting the stability of the Slovene-inhabited territories over centuries.

  • Language Log considers the future of the Cantonese language in Hong Kong, faced with pressure from China.

  • Lawyers, Guns and Money notes how negatively disruptive a withdrawal of American forces from Germany would be for the United States and its position in the world.

  • Lingua Franca, at the Chronicle, notes the usefulness of the term "Latinx".

  • The LRB Blog reports on the restoration of a late 19th century Japanese-style garden in Britain.

  • The New APPS Blog considers the ways in which Facebook, through the power of big data, can help commodify personal likes.

  • Neuroskeptic reports on the use of ayahusasca as an anti-depressant. Can it work?

  • Justin Petrone, attending a Nordic scientific conference in Iceland to which Estonia was invited, talks about the frontiers of Nordic identity.

  • Personal Reflections' Jim Belshaw writes about what it is to be a literary historian.

  • Drew Rowsome praises Dylan Jones' new biographical collection of interviews with the intimates of David Bowie.

  • Peter Rukavina shares an old Guardian article from 1993, describing and showing the first webserver on Prince Edward Island.

  • Seriously Science notes the potential contagiousness of parrot laughter.

  • Understanding Society's Daniel Little t.com/2018/06/shakespeare-on-tyranny.htmltakes a look at the new Stephen Greenblatt book, Shakespeare on Power, about Shakespeare's perspectives on tyranny.

  • Window on Eurasia shares speculation as to what might happen if relations between Russia and Kazakhstan broke down.

  • Worthwhile Canadian Initiative noticed, before the election, the serious fiscal challenges facing Ontario.

  • Yorkshire Ranter Alex Harrowell points out that creating a national ID database in the UK without issuing actual cards would be a nightmare.

  • Arnold Zwicky reports on a strand of his Swiss family's history found in a Paris building.

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  • James Bow considers the idea of Christian privilege.

  • Centauri Dreams reports on the oddities of Ross 128.

  • D-Brief shares Matthew Buckley's proposal that it is possible to make planets out of dark matter.

  • Dead Things reports on the discoveries at Madjedbebe, in northern Australia, suggesting humans arrived 65 thousand years ago.

  • Bruce Dorminey reports on the idea that advanced civilizations may use sunshades to protect their worlds from overheating. (For terraforming purposes, too.)

  • Language Hat notes the struggles of some Scots in coming up with a rationalized spelling for Scots. What of "hert"?

  • The LRB Blog considers the way in which the unlimited power of Henry VIII will be recapitulated post-Brexit by the UK government.

  • Drew Rowsome quite likes the High Park production of King Lear.

  • Starts With A Bang's Ethan Siegel considers the idea that Pluto's moons, including Charon, might be legacies of a giant impact.

  • Unicorn Booty notes the terrible anti-trans "Civil Rights Uniformity Act." Americans, please act.

  • The Volokh Conspiracy considers/u> the perhaps-unique way a sitting American president might be charged with obstruction of justice.

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Bloomberg's Anna Hirtenstein argues that geoengineering is set to become a real thing, as we end up trying desperately to manage the consequence of uncontrolled environmental pollution and consequent climate change.

A United Nations body is investigating controversial methods to avert runaway climate change by giving humans the go-ahead to re-engineer the Earth’s oceans and atmosphere.

So-called geoengineering is seen as necessary to achieve the COP21 Paris agreement clinched in December, when 197 countries pledged to keep global temperatures rises below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), according to researchers who produced a report for the UN Convention on Biological Diversity.

“Within the Paris agreement there’s an implicit assumption that there will need to be greenhouse gases removed,” said Phil Williamson, a scientist at the U.K.’s University of East Anglia, who worked on the report. “Climate geoengineering is what countries have agreed to do, although they haven’t really realized that they’ve agreed to do it.”

Large-scale geoengineering may include pouring nutrients into oceans to save coral habitats or spraying tiny particles into the Earth’s atmosphere to reflect sun rays back into space. Geoengineering proposals have been shunned because of their unpredictable consequences on global ecosystems.
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  • Bloomberg notes political despair in Japan's industrial heartland and looks at Argentina's statistical issues.

  • The Globe and Mail reports on Morocco's continued industrialization and describes the fear of a Vancouver-based pop singer for the life of her mother in China.

  • The Inter Press Service notes the recent terror attack in Dhaka, Bangladesh's capital.

  • MacLean's notes the good relations of Israel and Egypt.

  • The National Post reports on recent discoveries of quiet black holes.

  • Open Democracy looks at the connections between migration and housing policy in the United Kingdom.

  • Transitions Online notes how Brexit has wrecked central Europe's relationships with the United Kingdom.

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  • Bloomberg notes the upcoming meeting of North Korea's governing party, observes the absence of a groundswell in favour of Brexit in the United Kingdom, and notes NIMBYism can appear in many forms.

  • CBC reports on the upcoming summit of North American leaders, notes Mike Duffy's first appearance in the Senate, reports on the likely huge toll of insurance payouts in Fort McMurray, and notes the dependence of many Syrian refugees on food banks in Canada.

  • The Independent notes that Brexit might depend on the votes of Wales, which could be swayed either way by the fate of the Port Talbot steel plant.

  • The Inter Press Service notes, in a photo essay, how Third World farmers are seeking a technological revolution for their industry.

  • National Geographic notes how Atlantic City is coping with rising seas, mainly badly in ways which hurt the poor.

  • Open Democracy considers the Argentine government's likely approach to geopolitics in the South Atlantic.

  • Universe Today notes the possible discovery of a new particle and looks at how Ceres might, or might not, be terraformed.

  • Wired looks at a new documentary on film projectionists and reports on the difficulties of fighting the Alberta wildfire.

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  • The Power and the Money's Noel Maurer is concerned with Trump: what would happen if a terrorist attack occurred under his rule, would he actually be able to save money from changing foreign basing, do terrorist attacks help him in the polls?

  • Towleroad notes the advent of marriage equality in Greenland.

  • Window on Eurasia notes legal challenges to Russian autocracy in regional courts, notes Tatarstan's controversial support of the Gagauz, notes Protestants in Ukraine are strongly Ukrainian, and analyzes Russia's response to the Brussels attack.

  • The Financial Times' The World notes Poland's use of public relations firms to deal with its PR problems.

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As much as I agree with the implicit optimism of the title of Matt Williams' Universe Today article, I would suggest that a more realistic one is that we can't. All the schemes depend on technologies that, while imaginable, are also massive.

The first proposed method of terraforming Venus was made in 1961 by Carl Sagan. In a paper titled “The Planet Venus“, he argued for the use of genetically engineered bacteria to transform the carbon in the atmosphere into organic molecules. However, this was rendered impractical due to the subsequent discovery of sulfuric acid in Venus’ clouds and the effects of solar wind.

In his 1991 study “Terraforming Venus Quickly“, British scientist Paul Birch proposed bombarding Venus’ atmosphere with hydrogen. The resulting reaction would produce graphite and water, the latter of which would fall to the surface and cover roughly 80% of the surface in oceans. Given the amount of hydrogen needed, it would have to harvested directly from one of the gas giant’s or their moon’s ice.

The proposal would also require iron aerosol to be added to the atmosphere, which could be derived from a number of sources (i.e. the Moon, asteroids, Mercury). The remaining atmosphere, estimated to be around 3 bars (three times that of Earth), would mainly be composed of nitrogen, some of which will dissolve into the new oceans, reducing atmospheric pressure further.

Another idea is to bombard Venus with refined magnesium and calcium, which would sequester carbon in the form of calcium and magnesium carbonates. In their 1996 paper, “The stability of climate on Venus“, Mark Bullock and David H. Grinspoon of the University of Colorado at Boulder indicated that Venus’ own deposits of calcium and magnesium oxides could be used for this process. Through mining, these minerals could be exposed to the surface, thus acting as carbon sinks.

However, Bullock and Grinspoon also claim this would have a limited cooling effect – to about 400 K (126.85 °C; 260.33 °F) and would only reduce the atmospheric pressure to an estimated 43 bars. Hence, additional supplies of calcium and magnesium would be needed to achieve the 8×1020 kg of calcium or 5×1020 kg of magnesium required, which would most likely have to be mined from asteroids.
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Centauri Dreams' Paul Gilster writes about a new study of the Earth's history. It took quite a long time for the Earth to build up current levels of oxygen, it turns out.

The researchers measured selenium isotopes in rock samples laid down under the ocean to track oxygen levels from 770 to 525 million years ago (across the full period believed to be covered by what is known as the Neoproterozoic Oxygenation Event). The marine shales are drawn from seven different geological sections, with samples from Canada (the Mackenzie Mountains), China (the so-called Yangtze Platform), Australia and the western US.

This is a fascinating period because three major glaciation events occurred during it: The Sturtian (‘snowball Earth’) of roughly 716 million years ago, the Marinoan (635 million years ago, or 635Ma), and the Gaskiers glaciation (about 580 Ma).

This would be a planet that looked nothing like what we’re familiar with, as the image above suggests. The land would have been covered in ice and the oceans frozen all the way to the equatorial regions. Temperature changes as these eras progressed would in each case melt the glaciers and produce a flow of nutrients into the oceans, one that would build the levels of organic carbon in seafloor sediments as oceanic plankton that flourished from that flow died. The growth in such carbon would lead to gradual increases in the level of oxygen.

A key finding of the paper is that rather than occurring after the Gaskiers glaciation, the oxygenation began much earlier, during or at the end of the Marinoan glaciation. From the paper:

“…the significance of the Se isotope record is not only that it adds to growing evidence that the late Proterozoic and Cambrian ocean and atmosphere reached a progressively more oxic state, coinciding with the diversification of animal life, but also that the process of oxidation was protracted, and not ultimately triggered by the Gaskiers deglaciation, as other data suggest.”

Moreover, it took approximately 100 million years for atmospheric oxygen to climb from less than 1 percent to over ten percent of today’s level. The occurrence of oxygenation in fits and starts over such a lengthy period of time is evidence, the team believes, that early animal evolution received its needed boost from these increased levels of oxygen. Says Pogge von Strandmann: “We were surprised to see how long it took Earth to produce oxygen and our findings dispel theories that it was a quick process caused by a change in animal behaviour.”
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  • At Antipope, Charlie Stross starts a discussion about the consequences of satellites getting knocked down. How would a newly satellite-less world cope?

  • Centauri Dreams looks at red dwarfs and the challenges of their potentially habitable exoplanets.

  • The Dragon's Gaze considers ways to detect the spectral signatures of rocky impacts on young stars.

  • The Dragon's Tales considers why nuking Mars in the aim of terraforming will not work.

  • Language Hat considers languages with royal and commoner registers.

  • Languages of the World starts a consideration of the links between genes and history and language.

  • Lawyers, Guns and Money notes the popularity of Planned Parenthood.

  • Marginal Revolution thinks the added pollution from the Volkswagen fraud had a trivial negative effect.

  • pollotenchegg maps Russian language use in 1926 Ukraine.

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CBC's Max Leighton reports on how Elon Musk's talk with Stephen Colbert of using nuclear weapons on Mars' polar icecaps, presumably with the goal of releasing their water and atmospheric gas into the thin Martian atmosphere, was received.

(At very most this would be just the start.)

[T]hings turned sinister when Colbert brought up Musk's plans for the red planet … Mars.

For the most part, Musk appeared genuinely undeterred by Mars' stark uninhabitability and suggested the "fixer upper of a planet" could be warmed, and rendered more hospitable to humans, in two ways: the "slow way," which, like Earth, involves the release of greenhouse gasses, and the "fast way" which requires the detonation of thermonuclear bombs over the planet's poles.

That's right. Musk suggested we consider, possibly, one day, nuking Mars.

"You're a super villain, that's what a super villain does," said Colbert. "Superman doesn't say we'll drop thermonuclear bombs, that's Lex Luthor, man."

Once again, Musk seemed mostly indifferent to the comparison.
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  • Centauri Dreams reports on a theory suggesting the distant dwarf planet Sedna and its kin were captured from another star in the sun's birth cluster.

  • Crooked Timber reports on a Dutch court ruling arguing that the Netherlands is legally obliged to reduce carbon dioxide output.

  • The Dragon's Gaze notes that hot Neptune Gliese 436b has a comet-like tail.

  • The Dragon's Tales notes that DARPA is working on Martian terraforming bugs.

  • Far Outliers looks at Comanche inroads on bison herds in the 19th century.

  • Geocurrents maps the recent Turkish elections, looking for patterns.

  • Marginal Revolution argues that the campaign against the Confederate flag couldn't work if the two American political parties were competing for rural white votes.

  • The Russian Demographics Blog shares an Economist ranking of the top tne economies in 2050, Indonesia ranking notably higher.

  • Torontoist notes a local publication of nerd fangirls.

  • Window on Eurasia argues that the Russian Orthodox Church's ongoing losses in Ukraine will marginalize it internationally.

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I went into Kim Stanley Robinson's 2312 wanting to really like the novel. I'm still quite a fan of his famous Mars trilogy, justly one of the most famous terraforming sagas out there (among other things), and he has acquired--as noted in The New Yorker, among other places--a reputation as one of the great living writers of science fiction. I had come across various critical reviews--Nicholas Whyte's highlighting of the novel's structural flaws, Ernest Yanarella's Strange Horizons wondering about the ecological sense or lack thereof in 2312's radical transformation of the solar system, Vandana Singh's review noting that 2312 really doesn't take account of most of the Third World in his future, James Nicoll highlighting as symptomatic of the novel's problems the sentence "Wahram would have been better for stuff like this, but he had flown off to America, frustrated like so many before him by irrefragable Africa."--and hoped that they were overstating things.

They weren't. The central problem with 2312 is that 2312 is almost unimaginative, pairing a radically transformed solar system with an unchanging Earth, incidentally giving us protagonists who are unsympathetic for reasons not the fault of the reader. Robinson has done this all before, and it shows.

The future of 2312 combines remarkable prosperity and abundance with terrible privation. An Earth ravaged by ecological catastrophes--greenhouse effect, sea level rise, climate control efforts resulting in catastrophic mini Ice Age, et cetera--is caught up trying to survive the consequences of our time's errors, with three of its eleven billions risking starvation of anything goes wrong. There is wealth and power in abundance--China, in particular, still authoritarian--but it is distributed unequally. This unequal distribution of wealth and power is not enough to keep this Earth from becoming the homeworld of a new spacefaring civilization. Mars is terraformed with speed, through technological and political processes not wildly different than those described in the Mars trilogy of two decades ago, while China leads the aggressive transformation of Venus--solettas cool the planet and let the carbon dioxide fall to the surface as ice, while icy chunks bring water and something is done about the day. Away from the inner worlds of the solar system, among the asteroids and on the moons of the outer planets and even on Mercury, a quantum computer-managed economy of abundance unites an ecologically and culturally diverse archipelago of thousands of habitats, one preparing to transform even distant frozen moons like Ganymede and Titan into habitable enclaves. On Earth, humanity remains the same; away from Earth, humanity is beginning to speciate, fragmenting into multiple subpopulations defined by particular responses to issues of environmental requirements, and gender, and sexual orientation, and longevity. Into this complex solar system, on the brink of transitioning into something new, an intrepid ad hoc coalition of investigators happens upon a troubling conspiracy.

My immediate problem with the setting is that it combines a not-quite-believable excess of success away from Earth with downright stasis on the human homeworld. Technical issues aside--would putting Venus in a permanent shade actually lead to its atmosphere freezing out into dry ice in a century or two?--Robinson's projects away from Earth involve the unmitigated success of huge megaengineering projects, involving the export of nitrogen amounting to half of the Titanian atmosphere to the Mars for the benefit of terraformers there, the fragmentation of a Saturnian ice moon to provide water for Venus, and more energetic projects still on outer worlds. None of them seem to have failed. Robinson mentions in passing, yes, that Mars terraforming had some problems, but these are not described in-depth to a reader told that Mars is now a perfectly pleasant Earth-like world. Similarly, while the particular route taken by the Venus terraformers leaves the world vulnerable to disaster--this vulnerability is key to the conclusion--this vulnerability exists firstly as a consequence of imaginable and defensible terrorist acts and secondly because of computing issues that feel somewhat contrived notwithstanding plot developments. Everything done offworld is a success, along the lines that Robinson himself described in the Mars trilogy of nearly two decades ago, and along the lines described by other authors imagining an imaginable future where everything has been done superbly with few flaws visible to the admirer. No unpleasant surprises here.

And yet, on Earth, nothing has been accomplished apart from a mini-Ice Age that led to mass death worldwide. There are many small-scale efforts aimed at mitigating environmental change in certain parts of the world, but the only big global project tried by humans on Earth was a failure. Manhattan and Shanghai may be flooded, a wide belt of territory from the Mediterranean basin west through to South Asia is desertified, and everyone is worried about a single big catastrophe that might tip the planet into a new human-hostile era, but no one does anything. This inertia is unsurprising because, it seems, Earth hasn't changed in any positive way at all in three centuries. Have the rich countries remained rich and the poor poor, with few exceptions? Has Africa remained "irrefragable" (a real word, apparently)? Does China remain an authoritarian state? Yes, yes, and yes. It felt as if Robinson was going out of the way to stack the deck, to contrast a relatively successful and dynamic off-Earth civilization with a consistently unsuccessful and unchanging Earth. The argument of many of 2312's characters that the Earth's situation was too complex for anyone on the planet to engage with felt very unconvincing. No surprises at all here, alas.

(How did the relatively progressive off-Earth civilization ever manage to form at all, given its unpromising beginnings? I don't think I quite got an answer. There was a certain amount of self-selection in the migration to space, but this self-selection seems to have created populations relatively alienated from Earth and alien in varying degrees to each other. The Mondragon economy of the progressive space habitats never quite struck me as plausible for this reason. In a single habitat, sure, but so many diverse and often antagonistic habitats? But I digress.)

Into this complexly unsatisfactory universe came Robinson's characters. They weren't badly-conceived characters so much as badly placed characters. Robinson's chosen protagonist Swan Er Hong, a temperamental ecologist and artist plunged into the investigation of the conspiracy through family ties, was an unconvincing focus of action in the story. Events did not plausibly happen because of her so much as around her. (She was involved in a Venus-related incident that strikes me as not quite believable, while her involvement in the attempted rewilding of Earth with wild animals does not lend that ill-thought plan any credibility. What happened to Nunavut's needed wheat exports when caribou and wolves colonized those fields?) Her colleague, Titanian diplomat Fitz Wahram would have been a better focus. Even better than this would have been the exiled Mars-born "small" (read "dwarf") and investigator Jean Genette, who had a very interesting backstory. Alas, 2312 had very little of the story told from Genette's perspective. Kiran, a South Asian emigre to Venus via New York City who was Swan's ally on that world, had more of the story told from his voice, and Kiran unfortunately wasn't the most thoroughly-sketched of Robinson's characters. Things happened, to different people connected in a variety of different and often distant ways, and then the novel ended.

2312 could have been a much better book. Robinson could have done a better job picking characters; Robinson could have done a better job imagining an Earth that would change as radically as his solar system did; Robinson could have imagined the megaengineering projects of offworld being complicated, and shown us the resultant meanderings. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, Robinson chose not to. Instead, Robinson built the same old future that Robinson and others have imagined before, and more freshly at the time. I'm still glad that I read the book, since there are some interesting ideas, and characters, and passages of prose like Swan's description of her arrival in a futuristic flooded Manhattan are a pleasure to read. I just wish that there had been more than these gleanings and retreads of past glories.
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io9's George Dvorsky argued that, if humanity is going to terraform worlds in the solar system, it should start not with the relatively more clement Mars but rather with Venus.

(I'd be remiss not to mention my 2010 post about terraforming options in the solar system. Wikimedia's Itzin created the below fetching image of a terraformed Venus.)

Terraformed Venus

Why? Dvorsky's argument is that although Venus is more difficult, surface conditions on Venus are potentially more clement and dealing with Venus' atmospheric conditions--specifically the runaway-greenhouse carbon dioxide-dominated atmosphere--could be very useful for us.

[I]t's fairly safe to suggest that the terraforming of Venus would pose a set of problems far greater than what would await us on Mars. But that isn't necessarily a valid reason to terraform Mars first. As already noted, the insights we would glean from a Venus terraforming project could serve us well given our climate change problems here on Earth. It's even fair to say that the simple exercise of thinking about it — the brainstorming of ideas — may help us deal with — and even acknowledge — our current climate crisis.

But Venus poses other advantages as well. It's closer than Mars, making it easier and quicker to travel back and forth. And like the Earth, it resides within the solar system's habitable zone. We also know it can hold an atmosphere (obviously), and it has nearly the same mass and size as Earth. Mars, on the other hand, is considerably smaller, and would pose serious health risks to humans (reduced muscle mass and bone density) on account of its low gravity.


Dvorsky goes on to note that to be fully terraformed, Venus would need to be transformed in almost every respect, from the content and temperature of its atmosphere to its rate of rotation about its axis to its lack of life.

Myself, I suspect that if geoengineering the Earth and terraforming Venus are ever to be connected, it would be through the techniques developed on Earth being used on Venus, not the other way around. That assumes that there ever is sufficient incentive to invest vast sums and large amounts of time in transforming a planet that's unliveable to us for very good reasons--its long day, its proximity to our common sun--or that the techniques used to tinker with one world could be relevant to another different one. It's a fetching dream, but I'm skeptical of its plausibility.

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February 2021

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