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  • Philip Jones at Open Democracy makes a case for renters' unions in the United Kingdom, here.

  • Guardian Cities considers the potential for maglev trains in world cities.

  • Birds in urban habitats engage in intense competition over food and territory, the National Post reports.

  • JSTOR Daily contrasts and compares the heavy urban footprint of Dubai versus the light one of Manhattan. What did planners do differently in the two metropolises?

  • Ankita Rao at VICE looks at how cities have been designed in ways that encourage loneliness, and at how some city planners are trying to overcome this.

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I've a post up at Demography Matters that takes a brief look at the immigration histories of the Persian Gulf states, taking a particular look at Dubai's via Noel's posts, and suggesting that proponents of planned or replacement migration should be really careful to try not to screw over the immigrants by treating them as disposable non-people. Go, read.
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The New Republic's Seyward Darby writes about how the post-Soviet states Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan are trying to imitate the Dubai model, despite everything that has happened of late.

Turkmenistan, which ranks up with Burma and North Korea as one of the most appallingly totalitarian countries on earth and which only recently opened its doors to foreign investors, is building Avaza, a $5 billion resort complex on the Caspian Sea. Set for completion in 2020, a goal that's remained intact despite the global recession, Avaza will include high-rise hotels, sports facilities, conference centers, and, of course, a man-made island (which, when seen from the air, will resemble a crab--President Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov's zodiac sign). As the project was just getting started in early 2008, a government press release outlined the vision for Avaza's opulence:

Pleasure boats will furrow the river with the original bridges thrown across. Restaurants, cafes, sports grounds and footpaths will be constructed on the river banks. The river and lakes will be located in the natural hollows blended well with the local landscape. The lakes will surround the cozy beaches and when the gale will rage throughout the sea tourists can swim in the calm lakes.


Similarly, Kazakhstan is building Aktau-City, which will cost $38 billion and, like Avaza, will be completed by 2020. Construction of hotels and shopping malls is currently underway, and the complex already boasts, interestingly, an academic showpiece: Caspian State University of Technology and Engineering, which opened earlier this year.

So how do Avaza and Aktau-City seem to be faring thus far, in the less-than-stellar economic climate? Not well.

Avaza had trouble filling guestrooms after the first hotels opened this summer and fall. “[T]he ministries in Ashgabat received orders to select staff to be sent to spend a few nights in the five-star hotels. Some had to pay the hotel bills from their own pocket,” Farid Tuhbatullin, the head of the Turkmen Initiative for Human Rights, recently told Transitions Online, a news website that covers Central Asia. It doesn't help that Turkmenistan also has short summers--meaning, beach-going in February won't work as well as it does in Dubai--and an archaic visa process, or that it borders those havens of stability, Iran, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan. And Aktau-City has some, er, environmental hazards to consider: According to the website Eurasianet, "[R]adioactive waste from Aktau’s disused Chemical Ore Mining and Smelting Complex has gathered [nearby]." What's more, in attracting investors and tourists, both Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan must contend with bad international reputations--the former's being worse than the latter's--on human rights, corruption, and other governance issues.
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Not to join in the general Dubai-bashing, but General Sociology has a post up examining Dubai's somewhat shady origins, quoting from Misha Glenny's excellent 2008 overview of global organized crime, McMafia.

When Dawood [Mumbai organized crime hotshot] skipped India for Dubai in 1984, few Westerners could have located the city-state on a map, let alone talk authoritatively about the place and its people. Arabs, Iranians, Baluchis, East Africans, Pakistanis and West Coast Indians, by contrast, had a deep historical acquaintance with Dubai. At the end of World War II, it was barely more than a coastal village that had survived largely on its wits, since its only indigenous industry, pearl fishing, had been wiped out by the war and by the Japanese development of cultured pearls.

In the barren years between pearls and petrodollars, Dubai quietly resurrected its trading links across the Strait of Hormuz with Iran and across the Arabian Sea to Bombay. Because of both Iran and India pursued policies of severe protectionism to build up their domestic industries, Dubai’s traders found they could exploit their own light taxation regime by importing all manners of material into Dubai and then exporting it to Iran and the subcontinent. “The bottomless pit that is Indian demand for gold funded many, many people here in those years,” explained Francis Matthew, an ex-pat for decades and editor of Dubai’s largest publishing company. “Almost every Indian woman needs it for her trousseau and her dowry; different kinds of gold, different kinds of plate for the various areas of India.”

[. . .]

In terms of influence, Dubai’s ruling Al-Maktoum family ranked second only to the Al-Nahyans of Abu Dhabi. The discovery of huge oil reserves on Abu Dhabi territory proved a godsend to Dubai and the other five emirates that formed the new state of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 1973 after the British decided to withdraw all its forces east of Suez. (…) Dubai itself has modest oil reserves, which even so account for 15% of the city-state’s income. But thse will dry up within the next decade. In the 1980s, the al-Maktoums decided to diversify (…). Thus they did conceive the plan to build the Jebel Ali port, its sixty-six berths making it the largest marine facility in the Middle East.

While critics scoffed at the grandiose project, the decision to create the new port was quickly vindicated. In 1979, Dubai had learned a valuable lesson from the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: trouble has its bright side. Frightened by the instability of their own countries, Iranian and Afghan traders moved to Dubai, bringing with them their businesses, thereby bolstering the local economy. With neither income nor sales tax, Dubai steadily developed a reputation for being a safe place in the Middle East to stash your money. Since then Dubai has always boomed during a regional crisis.


Long-standing economic links with India, including the historical use of the Indian rupee as currency in the British-protected states of the Persian Gulf and links with Bombay, furthered the city's economic growth.
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I'll turn first to the Globe and Mail's Andy Hoffman and Brian Milner for their take on what probably already is the biggest sovereign debt crisis since Argentina's in 2001. (A Japan projected to be in debt to the tune of twice its GDP may hopefully not be next.)

Global stock markets, commodities and emerging market currencies retreated sharply Thursday after state-owned investment conglomerate Dubai World asked for a six-month reprieve on its massive loan repayments.

The company is burdened with $59-billion (U.S.) in debt.

The debt standstill marks the end of Dubai's credit-fuelled real estate explosion, which spurred construction of scores of ostentatious infrastructure projects, including the world's tallest building and sprawling palm-shaped tourist resorts built on sand foundations.

It also raised the spectre of the largest sovereign default in nearly a decade and prompted fears of financial woes spreading to other economies just as the global recovery strives to take root.

The Dubai crisis could hit emerging-market sentiment and investor tolerance for risk, which have both helped drive the global economic recovery this year, Scotia Capital currency strategist Sacha Tihanyi warned.

[. . .]

“The thing that would make anyone nervous is the fact that this is a financial-sector shock. It was financial-sector shocks that played such an intensive role in the recession and financial crisis,” Mr. Tihanyi said in an interview.

Indeed, shares of banks with exposure to Dubai World debt or holdings in the United Arab Emirates, including HSBC, Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland, fell sharply on the news. European markets suffered their largest one-day decline in seven months, dropping more than 3 per cent. Emerging-market currencies and equity markets sank. Brazilian shares dropped more than 2 per cent and Mexican stocks lost about 3 per cent. Commodities, including oil and base metals also lost ground. Even gold, which has surged to record levels in recent weeks, sold off as investors reined in their risk exposure.


Yay. The United Arab Emirates is going to have such a hangover.

I like co-blogger Claus Vistesen's assessment of the situation.

At this point, I am of course simply trying to get an overview like the rest of you and not least deciding whether it will have any far reaching repercussions beyond today's theatricals. However, in case you did not turn on your Blackberry today, they story is that the Dubai government has requested investors in the debt of the investment company Dubai world whether they wouldn't be so nice as to accept a wee postponement of the payment of their debt. Especially, a payment due already the 14th of December in the form of $3.52 billion of bonds from property unit Nakheel PJSC looks as if it is near dead in the water.

The price of Nakheel’s bonds fell to 70.5 cents on the dollar from 84 yesterday and 110.5 a week ago, according to Citigroup Inc. prices on Bloomberg.“Nakheel is now standing on the brink of failure given the astonishing amount of cash Dubai would have to inject on it in order to see the enterprise survive,” said Luis Costa, emerging-market debt strategist at Commerzbank AG in London.


Obviously, announcements of delay of debt payments smells an awful lot like default and with $59 billion worth of liabilities at Dubai World many a financial institution and investor are exposed here. Naturally, and apart from the internal mess this is likely to cause in the Middle Eastern region, I am looking closely at the notion of European banks being sucked in here too.


The United Kingdom might be exposed: "Over and above the tragicomic allure of the failed conference call scheduled for bond holders of Nakheel (a guy called Murphy springs to mind), I take notics of the "sterling connection" and specifically the idea that the Pound may suffer from the Dubai rout as the sheiks and the rest of their ilk will be forced to sell UK real estate assets (time to buy a Chelsea pent house then?) in order to kick up the funding needed." Canada, according to Hoffman and Milner, isn't nearly as exposed. Yay! for Canada's prudent banks!

This sort of thing was probably inevitable given the combination of very heavy spending and the opacity of Dubai's finances. In the end, as this blog commenter noted, it all came down to Dubai's guarantee that things would end well.

in George Bush's words 'this suckers going down'. well it may be.....this is a potential mutiple default scenario. The 'implied support' by the emirates for the companies they own when no guarantees are in place has been the basis for credit ratings across the region. That is, that the sovereign would not default. That the federal government has allowed this to come into question demonstrates a very real hazard for investors, It is something it would avoid at all costs. Its about cash. There just isnt enough of it


Elsewhere, Murdering Mouth was surprised by this, suggesting that his predictions of that BRIC foreign reserves and sovereign wealth funds might help shift the world economy away from the US dollar shift over the next while. It may yet so, I don't know: are the sovereign wealth funds far less Dubai World and much more Temasek Holdings? Edward Hugh's recent A Fistful of Euros note about the Russian economy's major major distortions and problems makes me worried about the BRICs, in the meantime. (The other three are doing well. Right?)
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Thanks to Scott Peterson at Wasatch Economics pointed me to this rather "wow" news item.

Dubai World, with $59 billion of liabilities, is seeking to delay debt payments, sending contracts to protect the emirate against default surging by the most since they began trading in January.

The state-controlled company will ask creditors for a “standstill” agreement as it negotiates to extend maturities, including $3.52 billion of Islamic bonds due Dec. 14 from its property unit Nakheel PJSC, Dubai’s Department of Finance said in an e-mailed statement. Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s cut the ratings on several state companies, saying they may consider the plan a default.

“Extending the maturity of Nakheel debt is feeding the market’s uncertainty on which debt Dubai will honor in full,” said Rachel Ziemba, a senior analyst covering sovereign wealth funds at New York-based Roubini Global Economics. “They look desperate and the market is concerned that in the long term Dubai’s indebtedness is rising not falling.”

Dubai accumulated $80 billion of debt by expanding in banking, real estate and transportation before credit markets seized up last year. Contracts protecting against default rose 116 basis points to 434 basis points yesterday, the most since they began trading in January, ranking it the sixth highest-risk government borrower, according to credit-default swap prices from CMA Datavision in London. The contracts, which increase as perceptions of credit quality deteriorate, are higher than Iceland’s after climbing 131 basis points in November, the biggest monthly increase since January.


Thoughts? If Dubai did go under, I suspect that its collapse might well be iconic insofar as the 2008-and-after economic crash is perceived by future generations.
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Torontoist has a wonderful piece on the first arrival of the Airbus A380, the world's largest passenger airline, in Toronto.

The Airbus A380 is a double-deck, wide-body, four-engine airliner manufactured by the European corporation Airbus, a subsidiary of EADS. The largest passenger airliner in the world, the A380 made its maiden flight on 27 April 2005 from Toulouse, France, and made its first commercial flight on 25 October 2007 from Singapore to Sydney with Singapore Airlines. The aircraft was known as the Airbus A3XX during much of its development phase, but the nickname Superjumbo has since become associated with it.

The A380's upper deck extends along the entire length of the fuselage, and its width is equivalent to that of a widebody aircraft. This allows for a cabin with 50% more floor space than the next-largest airliner, the Boeing 747-400, and provides seating for 525 people in standard three-class configuration or up to 853 people in all economy class configurations.[7] The A380 is offered in passenger and freighter versions. The A380-800, the passenger model, is the largest passenger airliner in the world, but has a shorter fuselage than the Airbus A340-600, which is Airbus's next-biggest passenger aeroplane. The A380-800F, the freighter model, is offered as one of the largest freight aircraft, with a listed payload capacity exceeded only by the Antonov An-225. The A380-800 has a design range of 15,200 km (8,200 nmi), sufficient to fly from Boston to Hong Kong for example, and a cruising speed of Mach 0.85 (about 900 km/h or 560 mph at cruising altitude). It is the first commercial jet capable of using GTL-based fuel.


Operated by the UAE's Emirates Airlines and used on aa new flight to Dubai, apparently the main problem with it is that it isn't making enough flights. Blame the Tories of for this, of course.

"This is the only city in the Americas that Emirates is flying the 380," explained Philips. "We do an awful lot of exporting of manufactured goods, IT goods, many of our architects, our engineers, our legal, our accountants are working in Dubai."

"The only constraint in our growing relationship is probably capacity to work together, so I want to just add our voice to many other voices in convincing the federal government that perhaps we do need more than three flights a week."

When we asked him why he seemed frustrated, Councillor Kyle Rae was more blunt: "They're flying in three times a week, and they want to fly in five times a week. The federal government won't give them permission. There's a six-month delay getting cargo onto this flight. It is an economic engine, it is an important opportunity for international trade, and the federal government—because this is Toronto—is not giving them landing rights. This is interference in the marketplace and it has to stop."

Federal Tourism Minister Diane Ablonczy was also in attendance and all smiles, but found fingers pointed at her. Said McCallion: "Madame Minister, [the airport] needs a little more cooperation from the federal government. We are the largest airport in Canada, but other airports get a better deal than we get."

The urgency is rooted in the increasing importance and influence of Dubai on the international scene, especially as it relates to tourism. Formerly a tiny desert community of 183,000 people, the population has ballooned to 1.5 million in only three decades, only 10% of which are now Emiraties. One of the world's most audacious skylines has appeared only relatively recently with the explicit intention of attracting affluent westerners to the "Vegas of the Middle East," where many of the rules of this strict Muslim society are relaxed for the sake of tourism.


The Torontoist post has a huge number of photos of the plane. Go, see.
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  • Centauri Dreams examines the equations used to try to estimate the numbers of high-tech civilizations in our galaxy and comes up skeptical but hopeful. More data's needed, of course.

  • Daniel Drezner worries that Dubai's government isn't being nearly as open about its finances and the emirate's economic plight as it should be.

  • Far Outliers blogs about the women and children left behind by Japan after the Soviet conquest of Manchuria, and the surprising ways in which they were treated, as well as the ethnic politics of Uighur dance halls.

  • Gideon Rachman blogs about his visit to Hebron and comes off depressed.

  • Mark MacKinnon argues that, for the time being, it's probably best for Russia and the West to leave countries like Ukraine alone, and to let them evolve on their own terms rather than try to sponsor proxies.

  • Noel Maurer is surprised by the speed at which China's exports are contracting. Also, that the drop in U.S. employment in this recession is no different from other recessions, and that a "double-dip" pattern has been characteristics so far.

  • At Passing Strangeness, Paul Drye examines the mysterious Vela incident (asteroid impact or nuclear weapons test in the late 1970s Indian Ocean?), Ford Motors' Brazilian rubber plantation city and the ever-dangerous Reelfoot Rift of the central Mississippi river area, poised to go off in a tectonic catastrophe.

  • Slap Upside the Head blogs about the tiresome tendency of some conservative groups to put quotation marks around "marriage" when it's used in reference to same-sex relationship.

  • Spacing Toronto reports that Paris' bike-rental scheme is encountering major problems, thanks to the theft or vandalism of bikes.

  • Strange Maps features maps showing how non-French Euro coins infiltrated across the French frontiers.

  • The Volokh Conspiracy's Ilya Somin speculates that the economic crisis will discredit the current Russian government, leading either to a more authoritarian model of government or a more liberal one.

  • Windows on Eurasia suggests the Russian political system is set to transmute under the pressures of the economic crisis, that Russian ambassador in Kyiv Viktor Chernomyrdin's professions of skepticism about closer Russian-Ukrainian relations might be, suggests that Circassians and other Russia-based diasporas might receive "the right to return" under citizenship legislation though ethnopolitics is likely to be an issue slowing this down if not blocking it entirely.

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