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  • Charlie Stross hosts at Antipope another discussion thread examining Brexit.

  • Architectuul takes a look at five overlooked mid-20th century architects.

  • Bad Astronomy shares a satellite photo of auroras at night over the city lights of the Great Lakes basin and something else, too.

  • The Broadside Blog's Caitlin Kelly writes about the directions love has taken her, and wonders where it might have taken her readers.

  • Centauri Dreams reports on the Hayabusa 2 impactor on asteroid Ryugu.

  • John Quiggin at Crooked Timber takes issue with the claims of Steven Pinker about nuclear power.

  • D-Brief notes the detection, in remarkable detail, of a brilliant exocomet at Beta Pictoris.

  • The Dragon's Tales considers the possibility that China might be building a military base in Cambodia.

  • Karen Sternheimer writes at the Everyday Sociology Blog about the importance of small social cues, easily overlookable tough they are.

  • Far Outliers notes the role of Japan's imperial couple, Akihito and Michiko, in post-war Japan.

  • L.M. Sacasas at The Frailest Thing writes about the potential inadequacy of talking about values.

  • Gizmodo notes a new study suggesting the surprising and potentially dangerous diversity of bacteria present on the International Space Station.

  • Mark Graham shares a link to a paper, and its abstract, examining what might come of the creation of a planetary labour market through the gig economy.

  • Hornet Stories takes a look at Red Ribbon Blues, a 1995 AIDS-themed film starring RuPaul.

  • io9 notes that Guillermo del Toro and Cornelia Funke are co-writing a Pan's Labyrinth novel scheduled for release later this year.

  • Joe. My. God. notes a new study suggesting 20% of LGBTQ Americans live in rural areas.

  • JSTOR Daily takes a look at the Bluestockings, the grouping of 18th century women in England who were noteworthy scholars and writers.

  • Language Hat notes an ambitious new historical dictionary of the Arabic language being created by the emirate of Sharjah.

  • Language Log examines, in the aftermath of a discussion of trolls, different cultures' terms for different sorts of arguments.

  • Erik Loomis at Lawyers, Guns and Money notes how early forestry in the United States was inspired by socialist ideals.

  • The Map Room Blog links to a map showing the different national parks of the United Kingdom.

  • Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution, noting the new findings from the Chixculub impact, notes how monitoring asteroids to prevent like catastrophes in the future has to be a high priority.

  • The New APPS Blog explains how data, by its very nature, is so easily made into a commodity.

  • The NYR Daily considers the future of the humanities in a world where higher education is becoming preoccupied by STEM.

  • Corey S. Powell at Out There interviews Bear Grylls about the making of his new documentary series Hostile Planet.

  • Personal Reflections' Jim Belshaw considers the pleasures of birds and of birdwatching.

  • Jason C. Davis at the Planetary Society Blog noted the arrival of the Beresheet probe in lunar orbit.

  • Drew Rowsome reviews the new amazing-sounding play Angelique at the Factory Theatre.

  • The Russian Demographics Blog notes a paper that makes the point of there being no automatic relationship between greater gender equality and increases in fertility.

  • The Signal looks at how the Library of Congress has made use of the BagIt programming language in its archiving of data.

  • Starts With A Bang's Ethan Siegel comes up with questions to ask plausible visitors from other universes.

  • Strange Company notes the mysterious deaths visited on three members of a British family in the early 20th century. Who was the murderer? Was there even a crime?

  • Towleroad notes the activists, including Canadian-born playwright Jordan Tannahill, who disrupted a high tea at the Dorchester Hotel in London over the homophobic law passed by its owner, the Sultan of Brunei.

  • Window on Eurasia notes rising instability in Ingushetia.

  • Yorkshire Ranter Alex Harrowell notes that the British surveillance of Huawei is revealing the sorts of problems that must be present in scrutiny-less Facebook, too.

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  • Philip Jones at Open Democracy makes a case for renters' unions in the United Kingdom, here.

  • Guardian Cities considers the potential for maglev trains in world cities.

  • Birds in urban habitats engage in intense competition over food and territory, the National Post reports.

  • JSTOR Daily contrasts and compares the heavy urban footprint of Dubai versus the light one of Manhattan. What did planners do differently in the two metropolises?

  • Ankita Rao at VICE looks at how cities have been designed in ways that encourage loneliness, and at how some city planners are trying to overcome this.

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Al Jazeera reports on the decision of Abu Dhabi to allow the construction of a Hindu temple in that UAE state.

The Indian government has lauded a decision by the United Arab Emirates to allocate land for the building of the first Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi.

[. . .]

On Sunday, Modi became the first Indian premier to visit the country in 34 years, meeting with Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

The trip is seen an important step in burgeoning trade relations between India and the UAE, and the decision to allocate land for a temple in Abu Dhabi underpins the strategic vision of the two nations.

The UAE, a federation of seven emirates, is home to about 2.6 million Indian expatriates who comprise a third of the total population and outnumber the local Emirati population. Annual Indian remittances from the UAE are estimated at $14bn.
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Moroccan journalist Ahmed Charai has an opinion piece at The National Interest talking enthusiastically about the expansion of the Gulf Cooperation Council from its heartland among the oil-rich monarchies of the Persian Gulf to the much poorer and non-Gulf Arab monarchies of Morocco and Jordan. The expansion noted in March 2011 really is going to take place.

Whereas the announcement of GCC expansion was viewed as an exciting, historic development among member states and their populations, in the West it found a cool reception. Coming as it did amid the early euphoria of the Arab Spring—a time when many outsiders predicted that liberal democracies would soon emerge in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere—the news from the Gulf was viewed somewhat cynically. Shadi Hamid, a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East policy in Washington, interpreted GCC expansion as follows: “The Saudis worried that if the U.S. was able to turn its back on one of its closest allies in the region when former President Hosni Mubarak left, will they do it again if unrest erupts somewhere else in the region? Who will they throw under the bus next?” Other experts characterized the decision as a desperate move by autocrats to insulate themselves from the winds of change.

Sixteen months later, the regional situation has indeed changed. Amid an Al Qaeda resurgence, chaos in Libya, an ascendant Iran and a Syrian civil war spreading beyond the country’s borders, the Arab Spring states are struggling to achieve stability. The United States is also hard-pressed; it turns out not to be so easy for Washington to chart a steady course having lost Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak as a strategic ally and anchor in the region. In this context, a reappraisal of the GCC’s expansion is now warranted. The group is swiftly coalescing into a strong, constructive actor on the Arab stage whose concerns are congruent with those of the United States. Not only can an expanded GCC serve as Washington’s partner in addressing the region’s instability; its member states can also support incremental political change throughout the Arab world—both among Arab Spring states and within the alliance itself.

[. . .]

Viewed as a whole, the new eight-member GCC will border every major flashpoint in North Africa and the Middle East. The Gulf states corner the southwestern portion of Iran; its nuclear-power plant in the city of Bushehr lies barely 180 miles east of Kuwait City. Jordan straddles Syria, Iraq, the Palestinian territories and Israel. And sandwiched between Jordan and Morocco —the GCC’s new outpost on the Atlantic—lie the fires of Libya and the tensions of Tunisia.

Each member of the new GCC has a distinguished track record of mitigating neighborhood crises. Amid lethal violence in Libya and Syria, the kingdoms of Morocco and Jordan have hosted three hundred thousand refugees from those troubled lands. Jordan serves as hallowed ground for risk-averse international NGOs who wish to encounter and engage civil-society groups from Palestine and Iraq. Both Jordan and Morocco have also served as “fire departments” in the war on terror—lending troops, spies and expertise to help snuff out anti-Israel jihadists and Al Qaeda networks. Noteworthy as well is the extent to which these two cash-strapped kingdoms have supported each other in these endeavors; Morocco, for example, has endowed a military hospital at Jordan’s Syrian border to tend to victims of the Assad killing machine. Moreover, the financial viability of both countries will be ensured by a cash injection from the Gulf, initiated by Saudi Arabia, amounting to $1 billion annually for five years. This economic aid will be invaluable to both countries and partly offset the United States’ foreign-aid burden at a time when the American economy faces challenges of its own. King Mohammed VI’s visit last week to four Gulf states as well as Jordan served to underscore the cooperation between these states as well as foster Gulf business investment in Morocco and Jordan.

A desire to end Iran’s nuclear-weapons project preoccupies all eight countries. While Americans and Israelis debate the role of sanctions, sabotage and air strikes in countering Iran, the expanded GCC’s member states are prepared to support all of the above. Saudi Arabia has spoken out boldly against Iran—and invested substantially in destabilizing the country by working with its disaffected ethnic minorities, such as the Arabs of Iran’s Khuzestan province.


The idea of an alliance of the Middle East's status quo monarchies, mostly absolute but including some constitutional monarchies, reminds me of the Holy Alliance of post-Napoleonic Europe more than anything else.

(Noel?)
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This is pretty far from being the smartest move for the Bahraini royal family.

A military force from Bahrain's Gulf neighbors entered the tiny island nation Monday in an apparent attempt to restore order as anti-government demonstrations escalate.

The Bahrain Defense Force confirmed the arrival of military units from a special Gulf Cooperation Council security force. The Council is a regional economic and military alliance comprised of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman.

A Saudi official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, told the Associated Press that the force would secure key buildings. The U.S. Embassy in Bahrain advised American citizens to stay in their residences.

Protesters who have been calling for democratic reforms have successfully shut down large swaths of Manama, the capital city, and Bahraini security forces have fought back with teargas and rubber bullets. Pro-government civilians have in some cases attacked protesters with sticks, knives and swords; the protesters have responded with rocks and other objects, witnesses have said.

Witnesses in Manama said that most downtown businesses were closed Monday.

Authorities in Saudi Arabia, which is connected to Bahrain by a causeway, have looked at its smaller neighbor with growing nervousness, fearful that a victorious Shia majority in Bahrain could embolden Saudi Arabia's own Shiite minority in nearby oil-rich Eastern Province. They are also worried about Iran exploiting the situation off their coast, although American officials have said that they do not believe Iran has been involved in the Bahrain protests.


The general consensus over at the discussion on my Facebook page is that, by not continuing the dialogue with Bahrainis that could have created a constitutional monarchy lacking in discrimination against the Shia majority, the Bahraini monarchy has instead chosen to retain control by importing troops from its conservative neighbour--itself apparently to be supported by troops from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates--so as to prop up its throne upon foreign bayonets. There may be, as commenters at Facebook and elsewhere speculate, a split between moderates and hard-liners within the royal family, but the institution of the Bahraini monarchy has been discredited by its decision to stop trying to bargain with its subjects and instead aim for a Saudi protectorate of one kind or another. Not good from Bahrain's perspective. Saudi Arabia, mind, may find this the least bad option; anything that limits the spread of democratic sentiments to its territory, especially to its own Shia minority, would be good.
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Daniel Drezner is in Dubai now, and he's somewhat skeptical about the city-state's prospects.

Ever since I arrived, I've been trying to figure out the best way to explain Dubai. Here's what I've come up with: If Stanley Kubrick had an unlimited budget and was making a movie about Las Vegas glitz, Dubai would be his set.

What do I mean by this? Well, like Kubrick's films, Dubai is underpopulated in an odd way, and the lack of people gives the place a very odd feel. There are shiny hi-tech malls, stores, and skyscrapers galore, but there isn't much else. From a citywide perspective, looking from the top of the Burj Khalifa, one sees all the new skyscrapers, a few blocks of the old part of town, and then... desert.

Even in the shiny parts of the city, there just aren't enough people to fill up the space. Everywhere I looked, there were way too many workers per customer. The Dubai Mall, for example, is truly massive, with every western brand name that still exists and a few (Rainforest Cafe, Benetton) that I thought had gone under. There was an entire wing of racy lingerie stores. I don't honestly if there's sufficient demand to keep these stores afloat, however.

Lest one think this is criticism, it isn't. I'm rooting for Dubai to succeed. If enough people come to the place, I think the Kubrickian oddness will wear off (though, not, perhaps, in the Armani Hotel. The hotel literature informs me that "every detail has been personally chosen by Armani to reflect his passion for stylish comfort and functionality." To your humble blogger, it seems like Mr. Armani has expended considerable sums of money to bring back the tacky wood finish of late 70's American suburbia, combined with the creeping isolation of Kubrick's The Shining). Any country that embraces the service sector with the same vengeance of North America is fine by me.


Drezner no longer thinks, as he did in 2008, that Dubai can stand as a model for general economic development in the Middle East, even among the Persian Gulf's microstates, since he thinks there's only room for one entrepôt--"Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain and Kuwait" will have to come up with some other model.

Thoughts? He asked specifically for people from Dubai to come and comment over at his blog.
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  • Anders Sandberg breaks down the possible explanations for the Fermi Paradox, the perceived mystery surrounding the vast size of the universe and the failure of extraterrestrials to contact us. What's the filter?
  • Geocurrents examines the plight of the Assyrians, a Chrisitan population indigenous to the area of Iraq subjected to ottoman genocide and since then suffering ever-greater levels of violence, all while the world fails to notice..

  • At the Global Sociology Blog, Habermas' warnings about the consequences of the delegitimizing of political elites are paired with reports from a Dubai where the idea of society, a shared public space, has collapsed altogether.

  • Personal Reflections' Paul Belslaw engages with some of the global controversies around multiculturalism.

  • At The Search, Douglas Todd writes about the traditional (and popular) Canadian belief in the possibility of interactions with the spirit world.

  • Window on Eurasia <a href="http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2010/10/window-on-eurasia-irans-influence-in.html|>examines</a> Iran's influence in post-Soviet Central Asia. Perhaps alongside Tajikistan, Iran's closest relationship is with a determinedly neutral Turkmenistan. Cultural distances otherwise limit Iran's potential heft.</li> </ul>
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  • Acts of Minor Treason's Andrew Barton speculates that North Korea, taking advantage of its ballistic missile technology, might want to launch an astronaut into space. Here's to hoping that North Korea doesn't make first contact.

  • A BCer in Toronto supports the decision of the Harper governments to not give in to the United Arab Emirates' blackmail, aiming to let Canada keep its base in that country in exchange for greater privileges for UAE airlines in Canada.

  • The Burgh Diaspora reports on ways in which cities facing migration-related issues can try to attract immigrants, via their social networks.

  • Centauri Dreams reintroduces the discussion of interstellar flight.

  • Daniel Drezner argues that, in true MTV Behind the Music fashion, Al Qaeda has become a has-been.

  • Geocurrents explores the genesis of the Thai tourist city of Pattaya in the leaves of American GIs in the Vietnam War.

  • Language Log reveals that the suggestions an Indonesian tribe was adopting Korea's hangul script were entirely misfounded.

  • Slap Upside the Head presents his satirical drawings most commonly pirated by homophobes. Yes, you read that correctly.

  • Window on Eurasia reports that a growing number of Tajiks are giving their children Arabic names, perhaps reflecting a resurgence of Muslim identity.

  • Zero Geography's Mark Graham links to an article of his analyzing the impacts of broadband internet on East Africa.

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At 'Aqoul, the Lounsbury comments on a Financial Times article that discusses the efforts of Persian Gulf states to establish thriving and indigenized academic cultures, the sorts of cultures that (it is theorized) would make the Middle East a centre of technical innovation.

The Arab world used to be a prime place for science, research and technology, but in the past couple of centuries it has deteriorated a lot, due to politics and ignorance. Things finally look like they are getting better now,” says Wael al-Delaimy, an associate professor of medicine at University of California, San Diego.

Abu Dhabi, for example, intends to pump Dh4.9bn ($1.3bn) into research and development by 2018 under a strategic plan for higher education announced last month. The emirate’s plan calls for 28 per cent of its graduates to be in engineering-related areas. But currently only about 9 per cent of higher education students are in those fields, says the Abu Dhabi Education Council.

Institutions such as the Qatar Foundation, home to branches of six US universities, the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, and the Sorbonne and New York university branches being established in Abu Dhabi, are trying to fill the shortfall. Most are teaching establishments for undergraduates. But the intention is that, with time, they will conduct research and award doctorates. ....
Not all has gone well. This month John Perkins, the provost of Abu Dhabi’s Masdar Institute, said he was leaving for “personal reasons”. The Masdar Institute has been formed in partnership with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and aims to carry out research in renewable technologies. ....

“They [the universities] are slowly beginning to realise that money cannot buy people, especially scientists,” says Hilal Lashuel of the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne. “The lack of equal treatment is a major problem. Hiring and pay is based on nationality and not merit, and Arab scientists are often disadvantaged when it comes to both.”

In Dubai, Tarik Yousef, the dean of the Dubai School of Government, a think tank, agrees that a research culture cannot be developed remotely or by one and two-week visits. .... “I don’t think they [the universities] are going about it the right way. Who are they using to recruit people? [They use] this executive approach,” Mr Yousef says. Some universities are losing as many people each year as they recruit, he says. ....

“Academics want time for research – and they want to be rewarded . . . It has to be a two-way conversation,” he says. “The first question people ask me is: what is my teaching load? How much administrative work am I going to have to do? Am I going to be able to organise seminars and attend conferences and deliver papers?”

Another issue is citizenship. Gulf states have historically granted citizenship grudgingly if at all. In a globalised business such as academia where people prefer not to move frequently, the prospect of working for decades in a country and then being denied the right to stay there is unattractive.


Beginning by commenting that the Persian Gulf states are not synonymous with the Arab world--their oil wealth aside, the Persian Gulf states combined don't have the population of Egypt--the Lounsbury suggests that the more traditionalist and family-oriented culture of the Persian Gulf states won't allow for the merit-based system necessary for a successful academic culture, unlike in other Arab societies that have seen more modernization (Egypt, the Maghreb, "even Jordan").
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I've a post up at Demography Matters that takes a brief look at the immigration histories of the Persian Gulf states, taking a particular look at Dubai's via Noel's posts, and suggesting that proponents of planned or replacement migration should be really careful to try not to screw over the immigrants by treating them as disposable non-people. Go, read.
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  • 'Aqoul's dubaiwalla writes about the challenges facing Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates as they try to increase citizen employment, as they try to improve their skills while avoiding harm to local economies.

  • At Border Thinking, Laura Agustín takes a look at how Israel is fortifying its Sinai frontier-with Egyptian help--to keep out refugees, linking it with newly imposed penalties for Israelis who help people sneak into the country.

  • Centauri Dreams reports on yet another astounding innovation in observational astronomy, this a new technique that allows ground-based telescopes to analyze the atmospheres of extrasolar planets.

  • The Dragon's Tales reports on Iran's claim to have successfully launched a live cargo into space with its new launchers.

  • Far Outliers examines how, in early modern Southeast Asia, different ethnic groups were governed by different legal systems.

  • The Grumpy Sociologist is understandably grumpy about an Australian police official's dismissal of attacks on Indian student in Melbourne by saying that they're safer than in India, anyway.

  • Murdering Mouth nails the sort of environmentalist survivalist who longs for an early 20th century (or earlier) existence and attacks the contemporary era with its complexities, all while happily taking advantage of these very useful complexities themselves.

  • Noel Maurer at the Power and the Money makes the claim that, contrary to popular mythology, the Republican and Democratic Parties in the United States actually work in ways not unlike parties in Canada, with party policy overriding individual representative's wishes.

  • Slap Upside the Head observes that, in Saskatchewan, religious denominations support measures aimed at allowing civil marriage commissioners the right to opt out of marrying same-sex couples (and who next?).

  • Towleroad carries the news that US military officials expert it could take years to integrate queers into the American military; commenters suspect that this is political.

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Not to join in the general Dubai-bashing, but General Sociology has a post up examining Dubai's somewhat shady origins, quoting from Misha Glenny's excellent 2008 overview of global organized crime, McMafia.

When Dawood [Mumbai organized crime hotshot] skipped India for Dubai in 1984, few Westerners could have located the city-state on a map, let alone talk authoritatively about the place and its people. Arabs, Iranians, Baluchis, East Africans, Pakistanis and West Coast Indians, by contrast, had a deep historical acquaintance with Dubai. At the end of World War II, it was barely more than a coastal village that had survived largely on its wits, since its only indigenous industry, pearl fishing, had been wiped out by the war and by the Japanese development of cultured pearls.

In the barren years between pearls and petrodollars, Dubai quietly resurrected its trading links across the Strait of Hormuz with Iran and across the Arabian Sea to Bombay. Because of both Iran and India pursued policies of severe protectionism to build up their domestic industries, Dubai’s traders found they could exploit their own light taxation regime by importing all manners of material into Dubai and then exporting it to Iran and the subcontinent. “The bottomless pit that is Indian demand for gold funded many, many people here in those years,” explained Francis Matthew, an ex-pat for decades and editor of Dubai’s largest publishing company. “Almost every Indian woman needs it for her trousseau and her dowry; different kinds of gold, different kinds of plate for the various areas of India.”

[. . .]

In terms of influence, Dubai’s ruling Al-Maktoum family ranked second only to the Al-Nahyans of Abu Dhabi. The discovery of huge oil reserves on Abu Dhabi territory proved a godsend to Dubai and the other five emirates that formed the new state of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 1973 after the British decided to withdraw all its forces east of Suez. (…) Dubai itself has modest oil reserves, which even so account for 15% of the city-state’s income. But thse will dry up within the next decade. In the 1980s, the al-Maktoums decided to diversify (…). Thus they did conceive the plan to build the Jebel Ali port, its sixty-six berths making it the largest marine facility in the Middle East.

While critics scoffed at the grandiose project, the decision to create the new port was quickly vindicated. In 1979, Dubai had learned a valuable lesson from the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: trouble has its bright side. Frightened by the instability of their own countries, Iranian and Afghan traders moved to Dubai, bringing with them their businesses, thereby bolstering the local economy. With neither income nor sales tax, Dubai steadily developed a reputation for being a safe place in the Middle East to stash your money. Since then Dubai has always boomed during a regional crisis.


Long-standing economic links with India, including the historical use of the Indian rupee as currency in the British-protected states of the Persian Gulf and links with Bombay, furthered the city's economic growth.
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I'll turn first to the Globe and Mail's Andy Hoffman and Brian Milner for their take on what probably already is the biggest sovereign debt crisis since Argentina's in 2001. (A Japan projected to be in debt to the tune of twice its GDP may hopefully not be next.)

Global stock markets, commodities and emerging market currencies retreated sharply Thursday after state-owned investment conglomerate Dubai World asked for a six-month reprieve on its massive loan repayments.

The company is burdened with $59-billion (U.S.) in debt.

The debt standstill marks the end of Dubai's credit-fuelled real estate explosion, which spurred construction of scores of ostentatious infrastructure projects, including the world's tallest building and sprawling palm-shaped tourist resorts built on sand foundations.

It also raised the spectre of the largest sovereign default in nearly a decade and prompted fears of financial woes spreading to other economies just as the global recovery strives to take root.

The Dubai crisis could hit emerging-market sentiment and investor tolerance for risk, which have both helped drive the global economic recovery this year, Scotia Capital currency strategist Sacha Tihanyi warned.

[. . .]

“The thing that would make anyone nervous is the fact that this is a financial-sector shock. It was financial-sector shocks that played such an intensive role in the recession and financial crisis,” Mr. Tihanyi said in an interview.

Indeed, shares of banks with exposure to Dubai World debt or holdings in the United Arab Emirates, including HSBC, Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland, fell sharply on the news. European markets suffered their largest one-day decline in seven months, dropping more than 3 per cent. Emerging-market currencies and equity markets sank. Brazilian shares dropped more than 2 per cent and Mexican stocks lost about 3 per cent. Commodities, including oil and base metals also lost ground. Even gold, which has surged to record levels in recent weeks, sold off as investors reined in their risk exposure.


Yay. The United Arab Emirates is going to have such a hangover.

I like co-blogger Claus Vistesen's assessment of the situation.

At this point, I am of course simply trying to get an overview like the rest of you and not least deciding whether it will have any far reaching repercussions beyond today's theatricals. However, in case you did not turn on your Blackberry today, they story is that the Dubai government has requested investors in the debt of the investment company Dubai world whether they wouldn't be so nice as to accept a wee postponement of the payment of their debt. Especially, a payment due already the 14th of December in the form of $3.52 billion of bonds from property unit Nakheel PJSC looks as if it is near dead in the water.

The price of Nakheel’s bonds fell to 70.5 cents on the dollar from 84 yesterday and 110.5 a week ago, according to Citigroup Inc. prices on Bloomberg.“Nakheel is now standing on the brink of failure given the astonishing amount of cash Dubai would have to inject on it in order to see the enterprise survive,” said Luis Costa, emerging-market debt strategist at Commerzbank AG in London.


Obviously, announcements of delay of debt payments smells an awful lot like default and with $59 billion worth of liabilities at Dubai World many a financial institution and investor are exposed here. Naturally, and apart from the internal mess this is likely to cause in the Middle Eastern region, I am looking closely at the notion of European banks being sucked in here too.


The United Kingdom might be exposed: "Over and above the tragicomic allure of the failed conference call scheduled for bond holders of Nakheel (a guy called Murphy springs to mind), I take notics of the "sterling connection" and specifically the idea that the Pound may suffer from the Dubai rout as the sheiks and the rest of their ilk will be forced to sell UK real estate assets (time to buy a Chelsea pent house then?) in order to kick up the funding needed." Canada, according to Hoffman and Milner, isn't nearly as exposed. Yay! for Canada's prudent banks!

This sort of thing was probably inevitable given the combination of very heavy spending and the opacity of Dubai's finances. In the end, as this blog commenter noted, it all came down to Dubai's guarantee that things would end well.

in George Bush's words 'this suckers going down'. well it may be.....this is a potential mutiple default scenario. The 'implied support' by the emirates for the companies they own when no guarantees are in place has been the basis for credit ratings across the region. That is, that the sovereign would not default. That the federal government has allowed this to come into question demonstrates a very real hazard for investors, It is something it would avoid at all costs. Its about cash. There just isnt enough of it


Elsewhere, Murdering Mouth was surprised by this, suggesting that his predictions of that BRIC foreign reserves and sovereign wealth funds might help shift the world economy away from the US dollar shift over the next while. It may yet so, I don't know: are the sovereign wealth funds far less Dubai World and much more Temasek Holdings? Edward Hugh's recent A Fistful of Euros note about the Russian economy's major major distortions and problems makes me worried about the BRICs, in the meantime. (The other three are doing well. Right?)
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Thanks to Scott Peterson at Wasatch Economics pointed me to this rather "wow" news item.

Dubai World, with $59 billion of liabilities, is seeking to delay debt payments, sending contracts to protect the emirate against default surging by the most since they began trading in January.

The state-controlled company will ask creditors for a “standstill” agreement as it negotiates to extend maturities, including $3.52 billion of Islamic bonds due Dec. 14 from its property unit Nakheel PJSC, Dubai’s Department of Finance said in an e-mailed statement. Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s cut the ratings on several state companies, saying they may consider the plan a default.

“Extending the maturity of Nakheel debt is feeding the market’s uncertainty on which debt Dubai will honor in full,” said Rachel Ziemba, a senior analyst covering sovereign wealth funds at New York-based Roubini Global Economics. “They look desperate and the market is concerned that in the long term Dubai’s indebtedness is rising not falling.”

Dubai accumulated $80 billion of debt by expanding in banking, real estate and transportation before credit markets seized up last year. Contracts protecting against default rose 116 basis points to 434 basis points yesterday, the most since they began trading in January, ranking it the sixth highest-risk government borrower, according to credit-default swap prices from CMA Datavision in London. The contracts, which increase as perceptions of credit quality deteriorate, are higher than Iceland’s after climbing 131 basis points in November, the biggest monthly increase since January.


Thoughts? If Dubai did go under, I suspect that its collapse might well be iconic insofar as the 2008-and-after economic crash is perceived by future generations.
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Sometimes when links accumulate too much they just need to be posted all at once. This may become a regular Monday feature, who knows?


  • Gilbert Casasus at Marianne2 notes (in French) that Germany is now seeing net emigration, with Switzerland being a major destination and with East Germans being especially likely to leave.

  • Silicon India observes that over 2003-2008 remittances sent by Keralan guest workers in the Middle East have risen by 135%, with the United Arab Emirates emerging as a major target and with Muslim Keralans providing a disproportionately large share of remittances.

  • The Portugal News reports that Chinese trade with Lusophone countries fell by 34% in the first half of 2009, with trade with its most important Lusophone partners Brazil then Angola falling the most. In addition, efforts to promote trade between Lusophone countries aren't working.

  • Loro Horta in Thailand's The Nation comments on the long-term consequences of an increasingly close Sino-Brazilian relationship on the wider Americas.
  • National Geographic News' Brian Handwerk reports on new research suggesting that large differences between juvenile and mature dinosaurs may have led to a misidentification of juveniles as separate species.
  • National Geographic News also reports that, for a variety of reasons, indigenous peoples are suffering more at a per capita rate from swine flu than the general population.

  • Wired Science's Alexis Madrigal covers the news that some space scientists would like to dispatch a probe on a return mission to a Martian moon, carrying life, in order to see whether or not life could survive in space and panspermia would be possible.

  • The Times Online reports on the latest effort by the (disputed) heir to the French throne to try to reestablish the French throne in the face of general disinterest.

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I was surprised to find out, via Slap Upside the Head, about the horror story experienced by a Canadian gay couple in Dubai. Xtra has it.

A gay Toronto couple was detained for 28 days in Dubai for carrying the prescription arthritis drug Celebrex, which is banned in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Rocky Sharma and Stephen Macleod, who have been together for 10 years, were stopped upon arrival in Dubai on Aug 2, where they planned to spend the day before returning to Toronto from a vacation in India.

Macleod had a bottle of the prescription arthritis medication Celebrex in his suitcase. They were told Celebrex is a controlled substance in UAE and, even though they did not present themselves to border officials as a couple, both partners were detained.

“I think they thought we were gay and we would have some party drugs with us,” says Sharma, who is now safely back at home with his partner. “They were definitely targeting people who are young, from the western world and nicely dressed, like they are going to party.”

The UAE has very tough drug laws. Even over-the-counter medications that include traces of codeine are restricted. Possession can result in lengthy jail sentences, heavy fines or the death penalty, according to an advisory issued by the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT).

[. . .]

They were not given an opportunity to contact a lawyer or consular officials but Sharma managed to contact friends at home on his Blackberry, which he had on him at the time of his arrest. Those friends gave him the emergency contact number of the Canadian embassy in Abu Dhabi, which Sharma called before his Blackberry was confiscated. Sharma’s family also contacted DFAIT in Canada but their efforts were stymied by the long weekend.

[. . .]

For the next 18 days, Sharma and Macleod could only communicate with each other via the case worker provided by the Canadian consulate.

“That was one of the worst parts, because I had no idea how he was doing, he had no idea how I was doing,” says Sharma. “We were told by the embassy not to even hint that we were a couple, to act like we were only friends, and that’s what we did.”

Homosexuality is punishable by death in UAE.

Even when the couple was formally declared innocent by the Dubai prosecution on Aug 18, they were kept another 11 days while their paperwork was processed.
rfmcdonald: (Default)

  • Broadsides' Antonia Zerbisias writes about Castor Semenya's heartbreakingly bad treatment by the media.

  • Centauri Dreams talks about laser launch technology, the amazingly detailed discovery of the extrasolar planet CoRoT-7b, and the reasons for communicating with extraterrestrial civilizations.

  • Far Outliers describes how the exchange of firearms for hogs on Tahiti started a series of wars.
  • Hunting Monsters reports on the latest depressing news from Fiji.

  • Joe. My. God reports that a South Carolina teen whose insurance company dropped him after he tested HIV-positive has been awarded damages of $US 10 million.

  • Noel Maurer examines the massive cost overruns in the private sector, concentrating on the Albertan oil sands' development.

  • Normblog considers the most commonly offered reasons for discouraging Jewish assimilation and boosting the number of Jews in the world and finds them unconvincing.

  • Towleroad reports on how the Ukrainian Orthodox Church--I think the autonomous one under the Patriarch of Moscow--rejoices that Elton John can't adopt Ukrainian children. We also learn how violent Iraqi homophobes are using Internet chat room to brutally murder gays in that poor country.

  • Torontoist reports that the Burj Dubai isn't going to take away the CN Tower's record as the tallest free-standing building in the world. No, I don't understand how.

  • The Volokh Conspiracy's Ilya Somin suggests that the strong association of American Jews with the left in the modern United States might be explained by a distaste of the Religious Right associated with conservatism.

  • Window on Eurasia wonders if Turkey, home to a large Abkhaz diaspora, might be the next country to recognize Abkhazia's independence, as well as reporting on how many prominent Ukrainians want a security guarantee against Russia.

rfmcdonald: (Default)
Torontoist has a wonderful piece on the first arrival of the Airbus A380, the world's largest passenger airline, in Toronto.

The Airbus A380 is a double-deck, wide-body, four-engine airliner manufactured by the European corporation Airbus, a subsidiary of EADS. The largest passenger airliner in the world, the A380 made its maiden flight on 27 April 2005 from Toulouse, France, and made its first commercial flight on 25 October 2007 from Singapore to Sydney with Singapore Airlines. The aircraft was known as the Airbus A3XX during much of its development phase, but the nickname Superjumbo has since become associated with it.

The A380's upper deck extends along the entire length of the fuselage, and its width is equivalent to that of a widebody aircraft. This allows for a cabin with 50% more floor space than the next-largest airliner, the Boeing 747-400, and provides seating for 525 people in standard three-class configuration or up to 853 people in all economy class configurations.[7] The A380 is offered in passenger and freighter versions. The A380-800, the passenger model, is the largest passenger airliner in the world, but has a shorter fuselage than the Airbus A340-600, which is Airbus's next-biggest passenger aeroplane. The A380-800F, the freighter model, is offered as one of the largest freight aircraft, with a listed payload capacity exceeded only by the Antonov An-225. The A380-800 has a design range of 15,200 km (8,200 nmi), sufficient to fly from Boston to Hong Kong for example, and a cruising speed of Mach 0.85 (about 900 km/h or 560 mph at cruising altitude). It is the first commercial jet capable of using GTL-based fuel.


Operated by the UAE's Emirates Airlines and used on aa new flight to Dubai, apparently the main problem with it is that it isn't making enough flights. Blame the Tories of for this, of course.

"This is the only city in the Americas that Emirates is flying the 380," explained Philips. "We do an awful lot of exporting of manufactured goods, IT goods, many of our architects, our engineers, our legal, our accountants are working in Dubai."

"The only constraint in our growing relationship is probably capacity to work together, so I want to just add our voice to many other voices in convincing the federal government that perhaps we do need more than three flights a week."

When we asked him why he seemed frustrated, Councillor Kyle Rae was more blunt: "They're flying in three times a week, and they want to fly in five times a week. The federal government won't give them permission. There's a six-month delay getting cargo onto this flight. It is an economic engine, it is an important opportunity for international trade, and the federal government—because this is Toronto—is not giving them landing rights. This is interference in the marketplace and it has to stop."

Federal Tourism Minister Diane Ablonczy was also in attendance and all smiles, but found fingers pointed at her. Said McCallion: "Madame Minister, [the airport] needs a little more cooperation from the federal government. We are the largest airport in Canada, but other airports get a better deal than we get."

The urgency is rooted in the increasing importance and influence of Dubai on the international scene, especially as it relates to tourism. Formerly a tiny desert community of 183,000 people, the population has ballooned to 1.5 million in only three decades, only 10% of which are now Emiraties. One of the world's most audacious skylines has appeared only relatively recently with the explicit intention of attracting affluent westerners to the "Vegas of the Middle East," where many of the rules of this strict Muslim society are relaxed for the sake of tourism.


The Torontoist post has a huge number of photos of the plane. Go, see.
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[livejournal.com profile] dubaiwalla's most recent links post, besides including an array of fantastic photos of Dubai, examines in detail Dubai's public transit system, its recent changes, and its continued problems.

[T]he government ordered over a thousand buses. While the old ones were generally adequate, the new ones are uniformly shiny. While I have yet to see the onboard information screens work as designed, they will one day give travelers route information. A large number of them are either double-decker or articulated. This will be important in September, when the metro disgorges large numbers of people on to the streets at once. If commuters can't trust buses to get them near their houses and workplaces reliable and in comfort, they will not use them. The metro will then be of very limited use outside the central business district, and will not do much to alleviate traffic on the city's main north-south corridor. New bus routes now serve the vast majority of the city, at least as it stands today. In an effort to make sure commuters have no excuse to avoid the buses, the city has built air conditioned stops, put up route maps at each of them, and started running buses through the night, with varying levels of success. Punctuality has been a serious problem in the past, not least due to congestion. The sheer number of new buses will probably serve as a brute-force solution to this problem. In other words, the schedules may still mean little, and a given bus might still be 45 minutes late, but if you can expect a bus every 10 minutes instead of every hour, it does not matter all that much. Currently, bus transfers and day passes do not exist at all. The only reform in that department in the past few years has been the institution of a flat AED 2 (55¢) fare for all buses in the city. Luckily, the electronic payment machines already visible on newer buses will be linked to the fare card system for the upcoming metro in order to allow for various discount schemes.


Go, read it in full.
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  • Phil Hunt at Amused Cynicism reports that Sayed Pervez Kambaksh, arrested for downloading and distrubting a document from an Iranian website arguing Muslim fundamentalists who claimed the Koran justified the oppression of women had misrepresented the views of the prophet Mohamed, at least won't be executed. Lovely. Nearly 80 Canadians have died for this country because ... ?

  • Mark Frauenfelder at Boing Boing blogs about the United Arab Emirate's "very scary drug laws" after the January arrest of a man who was carrying melatonin.

  • Edward Hugh at Bonoboland reports about the end of Spain's property- and easy credit-driven economic boom and Spain's need to move beyond that else it become another Italy.

  • Centauri Dreams blogs about Project Longshot, an exercise a couple of years ago that speculated about a probe design capable of getting to Alpha Centauri in a hundred years.

  • Crooked Timber's Henry Farrell points out that Romney's claim that votes for Obama and Clinton are objectively pro-terror should really take a prize.

  • Far Outlier's Joel reproduces an excerpt from a book by Timothy Garton Ash on a 1995 voyage through the depopulated Krajina region of Croatia, once Serb-run but even now without very many Serbs.

  • Joe. My. God blogs the Archbishop of Canterbury's recent statements on shari'a law in Britain. I tend to think it a bad idea if any religious law is accommodated to any extent by any state, but, well, just go to his comments. From the opposite end of the social/political spectrum, John Reilly also blogs about that.

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