Lithium: element #3 on the periodic table and the lightest metal. The metal is probably most famous for its role in the
treatment of psychological illnesses, especially bipolar depression. The element's fame in this role is such that it inspired the
1992 Nirvana song of the same name.
Of late, however, lithium has attracted public attention thanks to the possibility of the element serving in
lithium-ion batteries, these being powerful enough to accumulate the energy needed for sustained use of electric cars. At
Foreign Policy, as part of an
extended analysis of the consequences facing the world if oil stopped being as critical to our society as it is now, David J. Rothkopf wonders if lithium might drive conflicts. It can only be extracted from
salt pans and brine lakes in a select number of locals.
In Asia, Europe, and the United States, people are getting excited about the electric car -- and for good reason. Electric cars will enable greater independence from oil and could play a significant role in lowering carbon dioxide emissions. But the major fly in the ointment for the electric car is the battery.
Many solutions are being considered, including "air" batteries that produce electricity from the direct reaction of lithium metal with oxygen. The most likely option for now, though, is the lithium-ion battery used in cameras, computers, and cellphones. Lithium-ion batteries offer better storage and longer life than the older nickel-metal hydride models, making them ideal for a space-constrained, long-running vehicle.
All this means that lithium is likely to be a hot commodity in the years immediately ahead. It so happens that about three quarters of the world's known lithium reserves are concentrated in the southern cone of Latin America-to be precise, in the Atacama Desert, which is shared by two countries: Chile and Bolivia. Other than these reserves and the Spanish language, the one thing these two countries have in common is a historical animosity, cemented by their late 19th-century War of the Pacific. Chile was able to cut off Bolivia's access to the sea, a maneuver that rankles bitterly in La Paz to this day.
Could, Rothkopf wonders, competition over lithium create a Chilean-Bolivian conflict?
Bolivia-Chile relations are quite strained, with ambassadorial relations between the two countries being disrupted since 1978 and Bolivia's sustained, impossible insistence that the territories lost by Bolivia in the
War of the Pacific be returned. Will there be war?The Chileans seem to me unlikely to start a conflict with Bolivia, since they already have the frontiers that they want. Will the Bolivians? Certainly the anger persists, but is Bolivia likely to lose its good sense? The
Chilean military is one of the most powerful in South America, with a rather richer Chile
spending a good deal more money, absolutely and relatively, on its military and on equipping its military. Should Bolivia actually try to invade, I'd expect the war to end up like--well--the outcome of the August 2008 Russia-Georgia war. At best. I hardly see Evo Morales or his successors wishing their regimes' destruction.
There's another, more likely, source of lithium-related conflict. What's the other large countries with large economical lithium deposits?
China, actually. These resources will surely come in handy when Chinese automobile manufacturers manufacture their own battery electric cars. Where in China are the deposits located?
Tibet. Already, it's a source of
some conflict on the Internet. Given past protests and riots, is it unlikely that the lithium mines in Tibet won't become a major local and international issue?